Major Headlines for May 4, 2018 | $AAPL, $BABA, $TWTR, $IBM, $DIA, $CELG, $SPY, $TSLA

Major Headlines for May 4, 2018 | $AAPL, $BABA, $TWTR, $IBM, $DIA, $CELG, $SPY, $TSLA

by | May 4, 2018 | Market Update

Powerful move for the last two days to say the least, it was pretty wild, on Thursday, market tried breaking down below the 200 SMA to only rip back up capturing it and closing shy from green.. on Friday (May 4th, 2018) today in chat room we saw $SPY tried breaking the 200SMA, only to bounce back up and close the day over 1.20% with all major Indecies well in the green.

#Bitcoin is over 10K is it correlated to the stock market? maybe not but it did move pretty much up on heavy volume..

Dow closes up more than 300 points after Apple sparks tech rally

What did we do today?

We pulled our powder and triggered some long plays in the market, taking positions in $SPY, $QQQ, $TSLA and $BABA on the long side.. Those Tickers were traded on different strikes.. also some traders took $NFLX and $AMZN on the long side..

$BABA Daily Chart

and here is how the $SPY Ended the day – we are not out of the woods yet we are still in a wedge that is about to release some energy, check with us next week on how to play the next move, hitting 50MA, and hence a pullback is likely to happen.

SPY Daily From seekingOptions

Some Other Market highlights

  1. Exclusive: Redstone makes concessions on Viacom CEO to clinch CBS… (REUTERS.COM)
  2. Dan Healing on Twitter (TWITTER.COM)
  3. Dow rallies 350 points as Apple leads tech higher (CNBC.COM)
  4. Buffett Buys a Further 75 Million Apple Shares, Sells Out of IBM (BLOOMBERG.COM)
  5. MannKind Sees Meaningful Spike In Insurance Coverage (SEEKINGALPHA.COM)
  6. Trade The News: Real time stock, forex, bond news analysis squawk (TRADETHENEWS.COM)
  7. 60 Minutes on Twitter (TWITTER.COM)
  8. Jefferies – pre Conf Call note – CELG Q1 results were solid – and a we (INVESTORVILLAGE.COM)
  9. Consumer – Top Gainers / Losers as of 12:00 PM (05/04/2018) (SEEKINGALPHA.COM)
  10. As Trump’s tariffs bite, small U.S. manufacturers begin to tap the… (REUTERS.COM)
  11. Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway has sold completely out of IBM (CNBC.COM)
  12. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway will make about $700 million annually on Apple’s dividend alone
  13. Elon Musk defends his strange conference-call performance, promises ‘short burn of the century’
  14. Solid jobs report is just enough for traders to retake the market narrative

 

Make sure to join our Team in our Chat room to stay updated with market updates and trade opportunities, also sign up to our Free News Letter..

We will be providing free Youtube Videos by various team Members.. please subscribe to stay up to date

 

 

Now we need evidence to project target of 2468 on $SPX | Trading $ES_F, $SPY

Now we need evidence to project target of 2468 on $SPX | Trading $ES_F, $SPY

by | Apr 23, 2018 | Market Update, RQLAB

Previous update was sent on April 8th – Check this article for Full Explanation… the only probable pattern we considered for more upside as shown in following chart:
An ABC structure with ideal target at  2702. With price reversing from that area, we could assume price is now entering into the second phase of the correction.

The second phase of this correction needs to be examined carefully,  because the theory justifies the market should visit the 2468 area  – shown in chart below:

Certainly could be much lower than that Target of 2648 on $SPX. So we need evidence from the price in order to assume the second phase will play out.  We are aware of these risks and we are looking for evidence of this projection.

Other indicators like Open Interest and Cyclical analysis are pointing higher into April 27th and April 30th. Charts attached on this update. Appears to me that if pattern to the downside will play out should be after $AMZN and $FB earnings reports.

Micro charts we are monitoring reflect only three waves down from the last micro high at 2716.8 versus the 2659.2 low – as shown on next chart. So there is nothing bearish that negates the projections of the Open Interest and the Cyclical analysis. Right now 2659.2 should give us a price structure to solidify or to weaken the bearish case.

We have tried to do the best based on our analysis and we will continue to so reminding that PATIENCE is key in order to deal effectively against the dynamics of the market. Market moves fast but this does not necessarily imply you have to move fast, your capacity to monitor and process the information derived from the markets should be fast but your plan must have been designed versus the long end of what you are pursuing.



Volatile Market and What happens Next | $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F

Volatile Market and What happens Next | $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F

by | Mar 28, 2018 | Market Update

Lately We have been experiencing very aggressive and elevated rise in market volatility, by “volatility”, we’re not referring to VIX. We’re referring to the S&P 500’s daily % movements.

The stock market’s high volatility right now is not rare. There were a lot of historical periods with high volatility. What’s rare is that the stock market’s high volatility right now was preceded by a period of extremely low volatility (i.e. 2017 – January 2018).

Here’s today’s study: what happens next when:

  1. This is the first time in 1 year (252 trading days) in which….
  2. The S&P closed up or down at least 1% vs yesterday’s CLOSE….
  3. For 21 or more trading days out of the past 42 trading days (2 months).

Here are the historical cases

  1. March 26, 2018 (current case)
  2. January 25, 2016
  3. August 29, 2011
  4. September 4, 2007
  5. March 7, 2000
  6. December 15, 1997
  7. September 27, 1990
  8. October 27, 1987
  9. November 15, 1982
  10. April 7, 1980
  11. July 11, 1973
  12. June 4, 1970
  13. June 15, 1962

Let’s look at these historical cases in detail.

*We are eliminating all the cases that occurred near a recession because the economy is nowhere near a recession today. U.S. economic growth is solid. The next recession is at least 1 year (12 months) away. The economy and stock market move in the same direction over the medium-long term.



January 25, 2016

The S&P went down over the next 3 weeks. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 5 months later in June.

August 29, 2011

The S&P went down over the next month. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 7 months later in April 2012.

March 7, 2000

The S&P swung sideways over the next week. Then it rallied for 2 more weeks before the bull market topped on March 24.

December 15, 1997

The S&P went down over the next 3 weeks. There was no “small correction” before the next “significant correction”. The next “significant correction” began 7 months later in July 1998.

September 27, 1990

The S&P went down over the next 2 weeks. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 6 months later in April 1991.

October 27, 1987

The S&P swung sideways over the next 1.5 months. Then it continued to rally fiercely until October 1989.

Conclusion

it doesnt mean past can repeat here but all we can say volatility will stay longer and over the longer time frame market can trend back higher as money flow, that will be sometime probably in June/August.

  1. The stock market’s volatility isn’t over. It’ll either swing sideways or swing downwards in a very choppy manner for the next few weeks
  2. The stock market’s next 6%+ “small correction” is months away. This supports another study, which suggests that the S&P 500 will make another 6%+ “small correction” in the second half of 2018.
Next Tesla Move | $TSLA [An Update]

Next Tesla Move | $TSLA [An Update]

by | Mar 15, 2018 | Market Update, Pre-Market, RQLAB

On January 22nd we wrote :

I rather to take this structure on TSLA as an abc (link) with support at 339.12. I have always thought that TSLA has pending issues with the target at 518 and I still don’t understand why that target has not been met. This is the reason we have pressed TSLA on the long side on any decent setup; always looking for that pattern that takes it to that 518, which not necessarily needs to be a perfect 1-2.

So again this abc in red has support at 339.12, once it goes above 360 probabilities for higher will increase, but at the moment, at 356 they are not clear enough.  Right now it is at this ROG that comes from August 2017 (link), stochastics is at 91.58 embedded, daily 262 is at 363 and weekly 162 is at 363 too, so based on this any breakout will depend on TSLA’s ability to take and hold above 363 zone.

Monthly 162 is at 376, and 262 monthly is at 424, so based on the big picture versus the squiggles let’s see if our support at 340 area holds or if TSLA has the capacity to take  and hold above 363.

 Current, March 14th


So, by reading previous paragraphs sent on January 22nd we  can note that we have maintained a long term bullish approach on TSLA considering the long term charts; but we are sending this update because we are unusually concerned about one of our leaders. Sometimes our leaders can have a bad quarter or two, but our leaders usually come back in strong manner, erasing losses quickly after they have properly adapted to changing circumstances, but today I read some financial officers are/might be leaving TSLA and that certainly got me concerned, so we will revise all our macro supports.

First looking at  (link1)  we see there is a potential return of 60% on TSLA with ideal targets at 481and 560, based alone on the total structure of the price. Following is (link2) where there are enough hits to the 1% extension as to consider that any wave iv of any has been fulfilled; this count on link 2 at a minimum projects 450.

Initially we  will hold onto our last bull count on this (link3) before considering a reduction in our exposure; here wave 0/1/2 was a type of diagonal and now is working on the subdivision i/ii with support and ideal target at 309.79. Invalidation for this last bullish approach is 294.76, so while 309.79 can be spiked on the downside, our 294.76 should not be broken. By breaking 294.76 immediate target for TSLA should be no other than 266 (link) with Joel’s -162 monthly at 254. Average for these two approaches is 260; that level is certainly the most important spot for TSLA, holding this line our long term counts for 518/568 are still healthy and in good shape.

As to how to trade these probabilities while long shares: Once TSLA breaks 324.08 again tomorrow during regular hours traders should add 310 puts strikes and hold onto them while 344.50 is not taken, if further downside under 310 is seen and only if 294.76 is taken, traders should be more confident about this protection considering that ideally 260 should be seen.

Reducing positions in a 50-30%  is good too, waiting for opportunities to reload at 260 area.

We are still long bias and like the stock for higher prices, but ones must trade accordingly..

Seeking Options Team

Join for Trade Updates (SWING and MOMO Trades]



 

Mid Day Market Update for Wednesday | $AAPL, $BA, $TSLA, $FB, $BABA, $NVDA, $AMZN, $NFLX, $MU

Mid Day Market Update for Wednesday | $AAPL, $BA, $TSLA, $FB, $BABA, $NVDA, $AMZN, $NFLX, $MU

by | Aug 30, 2017 | Market Update

Tax Bad News, North Korea, Storms and Buyers showed up on thin volume yesterday lifting the equity markets, on hope leaving and closing today with flat to up day..  Today few stocks kept their momentum names like $AAPL, $BA, $TSLA, $FB, $BABA, $NVDA, $AMZN , those named we have traded them to the long side.. – Check Chat Room

On Waves Side its a Classic Wave 4 Head Games: remember some psychology behind these moves…all the bears got all over that first move to 2415 ES….and loaded the boat…to one side….also bulls go oh hey buy the dip again…works every time… we got that nasty rally…and shook tons of shorts out yet again…and easy bull money made to the Buy the Dip (BTD) crowd….now we continue to weaken back down to fib retrace levels…but it acts violent….that boat can get heavy again on the shorts side…and you have the buy the dippers thinking zero risk again…

then one more clean b-wave rag-doll move higher….and then you have a market with no confident shorts into that rally…given up all hope….and a whipsawed masses crowd…..and buy the dippers told again…wait for weakness again and lay into it!
ONLY to enter the period where the C-wave can fall freely….as shorts lost positions and bulls blindly buy every dip that deteriorates….

Ready to Buy The Market? $SPX

Ready to Buy The Market? $SPX

by | Feb 15, 2017 | IKE, Market Update

Most if not all of our stocks pick targets have been making new highs and we have been booking profits as we go higher. At these market levels it would not surprise us to see retail try to short it to only lead us higher as dip buyers have been rewarded for their bullish positions from stock buying or selling premium via put credit spreads, (if any can be found).

There is so much money sitting on the sideline waiting to buy a stock market breakout, hence a break out from current level can be very strong and would means another 25 handles in $SPX, which can take us up to 2367 area..thus far we will will continue look for buying opportunities on any pullback.

Here is the 60 minutes chart on ES

 

Open Interest for EOW3 expiration on Fri 2/17/17.

For Monday 13th these were, PCR: 2.724 (UP from 2.525) Change PCR executed at  10.385

For Tuesday 14th these were, PCR: 2.792 (UP from 2.724) Change PCR executed at 5.724

For Wednesday 15th, these are PCR: 2.893 (UP from 2.792) Change PCR executed at 4.732