NDX dipped below 7162 and QQQ dipped below 174.05. These lines were the last secure lines we could have expected to provide standard support (Alt1link) for the technological sector. Additionally SPX lost 2809 with strength (Alt1link).
For the close after hours market is facing all what we could give; SPY is closing at 276.09 (Altlink2); QQQ is at 169.86 (Altlink2) while SPX futures are at 2769, too close to 2760 (Altlink2).
So please allow me to tell you that we should be relieved with today’s levels, but there is something that is extremely worrisome and is the fact that IWM is crushing every short term support (Altlink2). We had already observed that IWM had met its long term target off 2009 lows, so we should not pay attention to this and trade SPX and NDX without even looking at Small Caps but the action out there is very disturbing. While IWM was above 160 I still calculated probabilities for this ETF to meet 178, but with today’s action that target became extremely doubtful.
So, why did we stay long until here? Well, I still was trying to get 2905 to trim positions, specially on AAPL that was holding very well, I truly thought AAPL could hit 231 if we could get 2905, so I had my eyes on it.
As we mentioned, the market has hit all levels we could allow, so if for a moment we assume market met a bottom line today, we will put targets at 3009 for SPX and 194. I want to stress that while market can extend above 3009, believe me when I tell you, the return does not worth the risk.
Finally, please have in mind, we have over weighted the strongest management money can buy. $AAPL, $MSFT, $QQQ, $AMZN, $FB, $BA.
Indications for a bottom:
$BPSX is truly oversold, could go lower, yes, maybe to 10 line, but rarely hits that low and usually marks a multi month bottom period.
Volatility weekly: Implied volatility is looking decent, while inverted volatility still could price additional fear. Indexes can’t allow more downside based on wave counts, so a pike down probably make us rework our counts to another c wave up off February lows that points to 3150; but that would only apply if we hit 2738 and bounce back above 2780 with significant risk at 3022. Too much risk at 3022 if this count plays out. Fibonaccis here (Altlink3)
Volatility daily: All values are supportive for a bottom.
Moores’ 2CP is at 29.6
Princely’s ONE/VXO, daily is at reversal area. Additionally stochastics on all indexes has met lower levels.
Market Mood models from Dr. Cari: Today’s big move day panned out, and it was also a down day. Tomorrow’s MMI is also close down, but is likely to be a consolidation day. Friday remains uncertain and the preliminary for the weekend is looking up so far. The MAM signal of a major low 10/11-18 is confirmed.
Oct 10 15:48:28
For a while now, we’ve been looking for a low in October. A close below 2850 today will confirm the MAM signal of a major low between 10/11 and 10/18.
Oct 10 11:49:50
While from the outside could be considered we are only watching market to fall apart, reality is speculators could write many counts here and is the work of an analyst to send analysis, but my duty is to tell the levels until now broken don’t imply the end of the markets.
Based on long term charts, I reaffirm you, this is not the end for SPX and observing DJI, considering entire price structure, probabilities for the high to have been hit, are dramatically lower (Altlink5). Targets 3009 for SPX and 194 for QQQ
Have a nice day.
Carlos – Many thanks to Joel Withun
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
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Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
$TQQQ, a Brief Update, for the bigger time frame, should check the Macro counts: Update sent on July 18th should be reviewed.
For today and based on same macro perspective sent on July 18th, we could have an intraday reversal of 1.2% on $QQQ or 5% on $TQQQ.
We have a double top resistance at 71.90 micro and macro as seen here on Alt1M – as shown below. The market “could” top at this line and find support at 68, that should happen based on setup, but currently the market has strength enough to continue moving consistently higher at least to 79.01.
Joel agrees and if you were to pick an index at these levels, this should be $NDX. Particularly, If you are trading $TSLA, let me tell you this: one thing is to say Musk is emotional, I say that at least twice a day, but another thing is to doubt about Musk’s capacity to outperform, at the very very core of Musk, we will find value… and we, —as we have said many many times— we try to be extremely careful with value, once value goes off your hands, you have to chase it.
Have a nice day. Carlos – Many thanks to Joel Withun
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Looking at $BABA, it is clear that at 180.80 we had 3 waves down, the upside to 198.35 was corrective, could have been a wave iv up or a b wave up; everything after 198.35 make us consider that the entire structure was an ABC down.
Technical Analysis
As shown below a chart that $BABA hit at 3.618 during the decline also can be counted as part of a 3 waves down move… so there is nothing necessarily bearish versus major macro counts.
Even more, when the last tranch of the decline is subdivided, we see it bottomed at the 1.382 extension
120 MIN $BABA
and the bottom struck was right at the 1% extension of any ideal ABC
Taking these three facts, this looks more like a corrective ABC than something more protracted , objectively to make a more clear-bearish long term call we need BABA to hit 194 or 206 followed by more price action that we won’t mention now to not create excess of speculation.
Conclusion
For the moment bulls need to take 178.45 on the upside and above today’s high we will maintain 194 target as secure, bears need to take 168.30,. Have to stress again, today’s price action and decline from 211.70, is not bearish at all… would like to be bearish with the herd… but we have not enough evidence.
Have a nice day.
Carlos
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Previous update was sent on April 8th – Check this article for Full Explanation… the only probable pattern we considered for more upside as shown in following chart:
An ABC structure with ideal target at 2702. With price reversing from that area, we could assume price is now entering into the second phase of the correction.
The second phase of this correction needs to be examined carefully, because the theory justifies the market should visit the 2468 area – shown in chart below:
Certainly could be much lower than that Target of 2648 on $SPX. So we need evidence from the price in order to assume the second phase will play out. We are aware of these risks and we are looking for evidence of this projection.
Other indicators like Open Interest and Cyclical analysis are pointing higher into April 27th and April 30th. Charts attached on this update. Appears to me that if pattern to the downside will play out should be after $AMZN and $FB earnings reports.
Micro charts we are monitoring reflect only three waves down from the last micro high at 2716.8 versus the 2659.2 low – as shown on next chart. So there is nothing bearish that negates the projections of the Open Interest and the Cyclical analysis. Right now 2659.2 should give us a price structure to solidify or to weaken the bearish case.
We have tried to do the best based on our analysis and we will continue to so reminding that PATIENCEis key in order to deal effectively against the dynamics of the market. Market moves fast but this does not necessarily imply you have to move fast, your capacity to monitor and process the information derived from the markets should be fast but your plan must have been designed versus the long end of what you are pursuing.
I rather to take this structure on TSLA as an abc (link) with support at 339.12. I have always thought that TSLA has pending issues with the target at 518 and I still don’t understand why that target has not been met. This is the reason we have pressed TSLA on the long side on any decent setup; always looking for that pattern that takes it to that 518, which not necessarily needs to be a perfect 1-2.
So again this abc in red has support at 339.12, once it goes above 360 probabilities for higher will increase, but at the moment, at 356 they are not clear enough. Right now it is at this ROG that comes from August 2017 (link), stochastics is at 91.58 embedded, daily 262 is at 363 and weekly 162 is at 363 too, so based on this any breakout will depend on TSLA’s ability to take and hold above 363 zone.
Monthly 162 is at 376, and 262 monthly is at 424, so based on the big picture versus the squiggles let’s see if our support at 340 area holds or if TSLA has the capacity to take and hold above 363.
Current, March 14th
So, by reading previous paragraphs sent on January 22nd we can note that we have maintained a long term bullish approach on TSLA considering the long term charts; but we are sending this update because we are unusually concerned about one of our leaders. Sometimes our leaders can have a bad quarter or two, but our leaders usually come back in strong manner, erasing losses quickly after they have properly adapted to changing circumstances, but today I read some financial officers are/might be leaving TSLA and that certainly got me concerned, so we will revise all our macro supports.
First looking at (link1) we see there is a potential return of 60% on TSLA with ideal targets at 481and 560, based alone on the total structure of the price. Following is (link2) where there are enough hits to the 1% extension as to consider that any wave iv of any has been fulfilled; this count on link 2 at a minimum projects 450.
Initially we will hold onto our last bull count on this (link3) before considering a reduction in our exposure; here wave 0/1/2 was a type of diagonal and now is working on the subdivision i/ii with support and ideal target at 309.79. Invalidation for this last bullish approach is 294.76, so while 309.79 can be spiked on the downside, our 294.76 should not be broken. By breaking 294.76 immediate target for TSLA should be no other than 266 (link) with Joel’s -162 monthly at 254. Average for these two approaches is 260; that level is certainly the most important spot for TSLA, holding this line our long term counts for 518/568 are still healthy and in good shape.
As to how to trade these probabilities while long shares: Once TSLA breaks 324.08 again tomorrow during regular hours traders should add 310 puts strikes and hold onto them while 344.50 is not taken, if further downside under 310 is seen and only if 294.76 is taken, traders should be more confident about this protection considering that ideally 260 should be seen.
Reducing positions in a 50-30% is good too, waiting for opportunities to reload at 260 area.
We are still long bias and like the stock for higher prices, but ones must trade accordingly..
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