by Carlos Narváez | May 22, 2019 | Market Update, RQLAB
Market scarcely moved today
The SPX has the same medium term setup off the 2798 lows, an abc up to the 1.382 retrace (Alt9link) that while below 2888.6 has probabilities for subdividing lower. At the same time since the price held the .618 retrace at 2834 (Alt9link2) and for as long as SPX holds above this line has the same probabilities for 2925 in a c wave up. This c wave up to 2925 might develop into a 3rd as usually happen in markets like this. For this we continue monitoring any signal that invalidates downside potential.
TNA, off the last lows (alt9link) has same structure for a C wave up with a more decent micro pattern that if manages to complete five up off recent lows, would increase probabilities for higher. Similar approximation could be done with TQQQ a move back above 60.18 should make 63 area probable with next resistance at the 1.382 retrace at 66 (Alt9link).
Major stocks are aligned with TQQQ/QQQ, same pattern applies.
SMH index has held the .50 retrace for a wave 4 down and will retain this potential for as long as is closing above 101.60 (Alt9link). NVDA is holding the .618 retrace at 150.82 (Alt9link).
I post this paragraph again as a reminder, It is unlikely we can beat this market through stocks, since might be topping in a major wave count toward 2987 or 3010 and stocks tend to be sold in advance. We do not know which stocks will recover on the go to these long term awaited targets.
We continue monitoring our stocks still long and indexes. As considered on previous update some important counts aim to 2760 with some confluence at 2720, we observing parameters for that price target range too.
Good Luck..
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
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SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
by Carlos Narváez | Mar 25, 2019 | Market Update, RQLAB
This is what Avi sent in his weekend update, Mar 23 20:45:19: As you can see from the attached 5-minute chart, the bottom of our support region is now at 2796SPX. And, as long as we remain over that level, then the next rally will either be a 5th wave completing the b-wave, or it may signal that the b-wave has already been completed, with the next rally being a wave ii retrace before we drop in earnest within wave 1 of the c-wave down towards the 2725-40SPX region.
Avi continued: To put it simply, it takes a sustained break of 2795 SPX to open that trapdoor to begin the pullback we want to see as we head into April… As we also know, we have been tracking two potential wave counts off the December 2018 low. Our primary count remains that this is a b-wave rally, followed by a c-wave down towards the 2200SPX region in the coming months.
Part of our duty is to see where to weight the probabilities that Avi is sending. In this sense, usually when we have a price structure like this, 2750 should the usual support, very usual, you can see 2750 was previous 1.764 retrace on the following link (OPlink) and this 2750 marks the point where the “B” higher to 2924 is probable or not.
Increase your attention, because here is the key, a break below 2750 with follow through below 2725 that can not come back below 2750 again, should be secure indication that SPX topped and probably won’t find support for a bounce until at least 2551.
But this has not happened, price has not broken below 2750 and as you can read, Avi considers his support is at 2796, we could be impressed by the continuous break of this break below 2796 level and fearful, but since we have done our work, we will simply average down Avi’s support a bit to 2773. Additionally, the W-line is at 2762.59 at this moment, so an overshoot to this level can not be discarded, what looks extremely unlikely based on Avi’s support and our work is the standard test of 2750, which usually is support. In other words, getting extremely bearish here is a mistake.
It is clear is that we can lower our target on SPX to 2900-2924.
$IWM
On this correction IWM ideally should hold 147.85 where A=C completes (Alt8link) but since is already in advanced states of this correction, can extend to 146.43
$NVDA
Support should be 171.51 (Alt8link), below this level, last line to enter a bullish trade should be 167, so think repurchasing between 167 and 172.48 is a decent entry for a long. The target for this move up, in case 172.48-167 area manages to hold should be 195 and we can not exclude a test of 210 on the upside.
We have hedged our TNA purchases throught TZA, so we will pay close attention to the intraday price action tomorrow, we don’t plan to get bearish, without a clear indication a major top occurred, additionally, plan to reload NVDA if the opportunity appears.
In the case we observe some weakness on $AMZN below 1729 would indicate we might see 1710 or 1692.
Good Luck..
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
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SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the
S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors.
SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
by Carlos Narváez | Oct 30, 2018 | Market Update, RQLAB
Summary from oscillators
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The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator is forming a positive divergence, meaning that selling on the New York Stock Exchange was not quite as broad as it was at the prior low, which penetrated <100> – a danger signal. Two versions for this divergence
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No evidence that institutions have begun buying this market in earnest. This pattern was confirmed using Data Trader Pro. Large blocks were bought on Wednesday, sold on Thursday before AMZN earnings.
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The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Summation Index has penetrated the 2016 lows without the hint of an upturn.
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Ticks: $TICK hit -1474 Wednesday and -1289 on Friday
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Weekly stochastics testing February 2018 oversold levels.
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Moore’s 2C-P hit 12.6 on Friday. Lowest value we have is 7, hit on 2/9/18
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Joel’s Net$ Values: Feb correction saw a point percentage drop of -11.84%. Oct correction is at -10.63%, as of Oct 26th. 2592.60 would equal Feb percentage point drop. Feb correction took $145 billion out of the market. Oct correction has taken $147 billion out of market as of Oct 26th close. Feb correction saw a Net$ drop of 18.88%, For the Oct correction to match that, Net$ would have to hit $828.96 billion. As of the 26th it’s at $874.45 billion. Based on current points per $billion, Net $828.96 should equal approx 2603 SPX. (Notice: If we consider the outflows of 145 billion during February, we have exceeded that correction by 2 billion now, it is needed a 5.20% drop in Net$ values to match February Correction in percentage/outflows terms )
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Based on OI, we could go higher into the 31st, just to collapse into Thursday and Friday again.
EW Analysis:
Previously on October 21st: There is serious risk for the market to go fast to 2680 or lower on a break below 2748.3, until then this level is broken, price action looks more like a bottoming scenario.
Previously on October 23rd: market must hold 2722; failure to hold should be shorted with stops at HOD; 2754, invalidation off today’s five up should target 2681 or 2624. A consistent move past 2757 would project 2809 or 2855.
Current
Having hit 2627.4 lows, SPX did the worst we could have expected, developed an ABC off the lows, things would have been glorious for the bulls if we had created five up of such consistent level.
On the downside market hit 2.618 extension and reversed sharply, but this abc off the lows developed on Friday could be a wave iv up that went to .382 retrace of the ½ down within the c wave down (link). Much above 2713 we can not consider higher highs as extensions within wave iv and we must/should assume market bottomed above the 2590 expected level.
Below 2713 still can the market subdivide lower in strong manner toward 2602.5 (link) and I don’t pretend to squeeze the 2590 level, knowing Joel has a target for Net$ Value at 2603. I gave the benefit of the doubt to this market at the highs, won’t give it at the potential lows.
Lets see if Market can advance above 2692 tomorrow, follow through above 2723 will mark an inflexion point that will set 2705 as support thereafter.
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
Again we will give more detailed trade setups and targets, please check us our Chat Room..as low as 15 dollars.. check this link for options
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SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
by Carlos Narváez | Oct 24, 2018 | Market Update, RQLAB
Market broke down below 2748.3 and created a micro waterfall, that was expected… the reversal had some things worth to notice:
1st: Market advanced above 2736 (Alt6link) but failed to advance above 2757 (Alt7tlink), bearish approximations should be still valid below this 2757 line.
2nd: Market managed to create five waves up off the lows, where the initial five up of the move was a diagonal (Alt7link), this is the most constructive case we can make for a bottom at this juncture, for a more reasonable bounce to continue, market must hold 2722; failure to hold should be shorted with stops at HOD; 2754, invalidation off today’s five up should target 2681 or 2624. A consistent move past 2757 would project 2809 or 2855.
3) Additionally, while I have 2757 to be optimistic, we need to advance above 2765 per Avi’s considerations in order to look for a breakout, fundamental fact for this divergence, is that what I am counting as five up off the lows, Avi is counting it as an abc.
No new lows on $QQQ.
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
Again we will give more detailed trade setups and targets, please check us our Chat Room..as low as 15 dollars.. check this link for options
Access to the Trade of the Week Click Here
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
by Carlos Narváez | Oct 22, 2018 | Market Update, RQLAB
$QQQ: Nasdaq’s Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator was at -95 on Thursday, October 12th. In the last 20 years (>5000 trading days), there have only been 8 readings lower than that.
$VIX: Spot VIX Index on Friday was still above all of its futures contracts, which is a sign of a washout bottom.
Liquidity: It has marked a bottoming condition for prices when it has been this low before, e.g. 2009, July 2011, Jan. 2016..
Internals
Moores’ 2CP: sitting at 21 for now, lowest reading that has been hit during this correction was 16.3, on Tuesday, October 16th. For comparisons purposes, lowest level hit this year, was on March 28. TNA closing price for that day was 65.40 and Moores’ 2CP hit 9.5. This information is relevant, a 2C-P lower than 9.5 combined with TNA closing price above 65.40 should be considered bullish.
Expirations: for this week is still looking down, next weeks are looking flat, so any call using 11/02 expiration on SPX should not be productive. We need more information from OI to make a clear call.
FNG’s cycles: are showing a bottoming action into this week, followed by a rally until November 7th or 8th.
$BPSX: continue trading at bottoming áreas, very oversold.
Volatility: Weekly, is trading below lower bollinger bands and still could spike down, for that reason we need to continue watching support and resistance on SPX. Daily volatility is low enough to indicate a bottom in place, at least for a b wave up to 2860. I stress that if we see 2860 and a C wave down develops, there is not actual support we can talk about
Princely’s ONE-VXO, still at reversal area, no change on this medium term indicator.
EW analysis
October 10th
For the close, after hours market is facing all what we could give; SPY is closing at 276.09 (Altlink2); QQQ is at 169.86 (Altlink2) while SPX futures are at 2769, too close to 2760 (Altlink2).
While SPY has scarcely held 276, QQQ has held more consistently the 169.86 line. For the market to rally at least to 2860 is necessary to take 2809 and 2821 on SPX. There is serious risk for the market to go fast to 2680 or lower on a break below 2748.3, until then this level is broken, price action looks more like a bottoming scenario.
$QQQ should go for 183.60 or 186.22 to complete a full retrace off the lows. If these b waves play out, should be a good opportunity to get liquidity back.
$SPX Stocks on SAR buy signals 198, improved
$NDX stocks on Sar Buy Signals 43, good improvement
$SPX Stocks closing above T line 162, has certainly improved.
$NDX Stocks closing above T line 21, improved
CNN Fear & Greed = 14 Extreme Fear
Have a nice day.
Carlos
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
Our last report from one of our portfolio (LINK)
Again we will give more detailed trade setups and targets, please check us our Chat Room..as low as 15 dollars.. check this link for options
Access to the Trade of the Week Click Here
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
