The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator is forming a positive divergence, meaning that selling on the New York Stock Exchange was not quite as broad as it was at the prior low, which penetrated <100> – a danger signal. Two versions for this divergence
No evidence that institutions have begun buying this market in earnest. This pattern was confirmed using Data Trader Pro. Large blocks were bought on Wednesday, sold on Thursday before AMZN earnings.
The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Summation Index has penetrated the 2016 lows without the hint of an upturn.
Ticks: $TICK hit -1474 Wednesday and -1289 on Friday
Weekly stochastics testing February 2018 oversold levels.
Moore’s 2C-P hit 12.6 on Friday. Lowest value we have is 7, hit on 2/9/18
Joel’s Net$ Values: Feb correction saw a point percentage drop of -11.84%. Oct correction is at -10.63%, as of Oct 26th. 2592.60 would equal Feb percentage point drop. Feb correction took $145 billion out of the market. Oct correction has taken $147 billion out of market as of Oct 26th close. Feb correction saw a Net$ drop of 18.88%, For the Oct correction to match that, Net$ would have to hit $828.96 billion. As of the 26th it’s at $874.45 billion. Based on current points per $billion, Net $828.96 should equal approx 2603 SPX. (Notice: If we consider the outflows of 145 billion during February, we have exceeded that correction by 2 billion now, it is needed a 5.20% drop in Net$ values to match February Correction in percentage/outflows terms )
Based on OI, we could go higher into the 31st, just to collapse into Thursday and Friday again.
EW Analysis:
Previously on October 21st: There is serious risk for the market to go fast to 2680 or lower on a break below 2748.3, until then this level is broken, price action looks more like a bottoming scenario.
Previously on October 23rd: market must hold 2722; failure to hold should be shorted with stops at HOD; 2754, invalidation off today’s five up should target 2681 or 2624. A consistent move past 2757 would project 2809 or 2855.
Current
Having hit 2627.4 lows, SPX did the worst we could have expected, developed an ABC off the lows, things would have been glorious for the bulls if we had created five up of such consistent level.
On the downside market hit 2.618 extension and reversed sharply, but this abc off the lows developed on Friday could be a wave iv up that went to .382 retrace of the ½ down within the c wave down (link). Much above 2713 we can not consider higher highs as extensions within wave iv and we must/should assume market bottomed above the 2590 expected level.
Below 2713 still can the market subdivide lower in strong manner toward 2602.5 (link) and I don’t pretend to squeeze the 2590 level, knowing Joel has a target for Net$ Value at 2603. I gave the benefit of the doubt to this market at the highs, won’t give it at the potential lows.
Lets see if Market can advance above 2692 tomorrow, follow through above 2723 will mark an inflexion point that will set 2705 as support thereafter.
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
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Market broke down below 2748.3 and created a micro waterfall, that was expected… the reversal had some things worth to notice:
1st: Market advanced above 2736 (Alt6link) but failed to advance above 2757 (Alt7tlink), bearish approximations should be still valid below this 2757 line.
2nd: Market managed to create five waves up off the lows, where the initial five up of the move was a diagonal (Alt7link), this is the most constructive case we can make for a bottom at this juncture, for a more reasonable bounce to continue, market must hold 2722; failure to hold should be shorted with stops at HOD; 2754, invalidation off today’s five up should target 2681 or 2624. A consistent move past 2757 would project 2809 or 2855.
3) Additionally, while I have 2757 to be optimistic, we need to advance above 2765 per Avi’s considerations in order to look for a breakout, fundamental fact for this divergence, is that what I am counting as five up off the lows, Avi is counting it as an abc.
No new lows on $QQQ.
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
$QQQ: Nasdaq’s Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator was at -95 on Thursday, October 12th. In the last 20 years (>5000 trading days), there have only been 8 readings lower than that.
$VIX: Spot VIX Index on Friday was still above all of its futures contracts, which is a sign of a washout bottom.
Liquidity: It has marked a bottoming condition for prices when it has been this low before, e.g. 2009, July 2011, Jan. 2016..
Internals
Moores’ 2CP: sitting at 21 for now, lowest reading that has been hit during this correction was 16.3, on Tuesday, October 16th. For comparisons purposes, lowest level hit this year, was on March 28. TNA closing price for that day was 65.40 and Moores’ 2CP hit 9.5. This information is relevant, a 2C-P lower than 9.5 combined with TNA closing price above 65.40 should be considered bullish.
Expirations: for this week is still looking down, next weeks are looking flat, so any call using 11/02 expiration on SPX should not be productive. We need more information from OI to make a clear call.
FNG’s cycles: are showing a bottoming action into this week, followed by a rally until November 7th or 8th.
$BPSX: continue trading at bottoming áreas, very oversold.
Volatility: Weekly, is trading below lower bollinger bands and still could spike down, for that reason we need to continue watching support and resistance on SPX. Daily volatility is low enough to indicate a bottom in place, at least for a b wave up to 2860. I stress that if we see 2860 and a C wave down develops, there is not actual support we can talk about
Princely’s ONE-VXO, still at reversal area, no change on this medium term indicator.
EW analysis
October 10th
For the close, after hours market is facing all what we could give; SPY is closing at 276.09 (Altlink2); QQQ is at 169.86 (Altlink2) while SPX futures are at 2769, too close to 2760 (Altlink2).
While SPY has scarcely held 276, QQQ has held more consistently the 169.86 line. For the market to rally at least to 2860 is necessary to take 2809 and 2821 on SPX. There is serious risk for the market to go fast to 2680 or lower on a break below 2748.3, until then this level is broken, price action looks more like a bottoming scenario.
$QQQ should go for 183.60 or 186.22 to complete a full retrace off the lows. If these b waves play out, should be a good opportunity to get liquidity back.
$SPX Stocks on SAR buy signals 198, improved
$NDX stocks on Sar Buy Signals 43, good improvement
$SPX Stocks closing above T line 162, has certainly improved.
$NDX Stocks closing above T line 21, improved
CNN Fear & Greed = 14 Extreme Fear
Have a nice day.
Carlos
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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NDX dipped below 7162 and QQQ dipped below 174.05. These lines were the last secure lines we could have expected to provide standard support (Alt1link) for the technological sector. Additionally SPX lost 2809 with strength (Alt1link).
For the close after hours market is facing all what we could give; SPY is closing at 276.09 (Altlink2); QQQ is at 169.86 (Altlink2) while SPX futures are at 2769, too close to 2760 (Altlink2).
So please allow me to tell you that we should be relieved with today’s levels, but there is something that is extremely worrisome and is the fact that IWM is crushing every short term support (Altlink2). We had already observed that IWM had met its long term target off 2009 lows, so we should not pay attention to this and trade SPX and NDX without even looking at Small Caps but the action out there is very disturbing. While IWM was above 160 I still calculated probabilities for this ETF to meet 178, but with today’s action that target became extremely doubtful.
So, why did we stay long until here? Well, I still was trying to get 2905 to trim positions, specially on AAPL that was holding very well, I truly thought AAPL could hit 231 if we could get 2905, so I had my eyes on it.
As we mentioned, the market has hit all levels we could allow, so if for a moment we assume market met a bottom line today, we will put targets at 3009 for SPX and 194. I want to stress that while market can extend above 3009, believe me when I tell you, the return does not worth the risk.
Finally, please have in mind, we have over weighted the strongest management money can buy. $AAPL, $MSFT, $QQQ, $AMZN, $FB, $BA.
Indications for a bottom:
$BPSX is truly oversold, could go lower, yes, maybe to 10 line, but rarely hits that low and usually marks a multi month bottom period.
Volatility weekly: Implied volatility is looking decent, while inverted volatility still could price additional fear. Indexes can’t allow more downside based on wave counts, so a pike down probably make us rework our counts to another c wave up off February lows that points to 3150; but that would only apply if we hit 2738 and bounce back above 2780 with significant risk at 3022. Too much risk at 3022 if this count plays out. Fibonaccis here (Altlink3)
Volatility daily: All values are supportive for a bottom.
Moores’ 2CP is at 29.6
Princely’s ONE/VXO, daily is at reversal area. Additionally stochastics on all indexes has met lower levels.
Market Mood models from Dr. Cari: Today’s big move day panned out, and it was also a down day. Tomorrow’s MMI is also close down, but is likely to be a consolidation day. Friday remains uncertain and the preliminary for the weekend is looking up so far. The MAM signal of a major low 10/11-18 is confirmed.
Oct 10 15:48:28
For a while now, we’ve been looking for a low in October. A close below 2850 today will confirm the MAM signal of a major low between 10/11 and 10/18.
Oct 10 11:49:50
While from the outside could be considered we are only watching market to fall apart, reality is speculators could write many counts here and is the work of an analyst to send analysis, but my duty is to tell the levels until now broken don’t imply the end of the markets.
Based on long term charts, I reaffirm you, this is not the end for SPX and observing DJI, considering entire price structure, probabilities for the high to have been hit, are dramatically lower (Altlink5). Targets 3009 for SPX and 194 for QQQ
Have a nice day.
Carlos – Many thanks to Joel Withun
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
$TQQQ, a Brief Update, for the bigger time frame, should check the Macro counts: Update sent on July 18th should be reviewed.
For today and based on same macro perspective sent on July 18th, we could have an intraday reversal of 1.2% on $QQQ or 5% on $TQQQ.
We have a double top resistance at 71.90 micro and macro as seen here on Alt1M – as shown below. The market “could” top at this line and find support at 68, that should happen based on setup, but currently the market has strength enough to continue moving consistently higher at least to 79.01.
Joel agrees and if you were to pick an index at these levels, this should be $NDX. Particularly, If you are trading $TSLA, let me tell you this: one thing is to say Musk is emotional, I say that at least twice a day, but another thing is to doubt about Musk’s capacity to outperform, at the very very core of Musk, we will find value… and we, —as we have said many many times— we try to be extremely careful with value, once value goes off your hands, you have to chase it.
Have a nice day. Carlos – Many thanks to Joel Withun
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Looking at $BABA, it is clear that at 180.80 we had 3 waves down, the upside to 198.35 was corrective, could have been a wave iv up or a b wave up; everything after 198.35 make us consider that the entire structure was an ABC down.
Technical Analysis
As shown below a chart that $BABA hit at 3.618 during the decline also can be counted as part of a 3 waves down move… so there is nothing necessarily bearish versus major macro counts.
Even more, when the last tranch of the decline is subdivided, we see it bottomed at the 1.382 extension
120 MIN $BABA
and the bottom struck was right at the 1% extension of any ideal ABC
Taking these three facts, this looks more like a corrective ABC than something more protracted , objectively to make a more clear-bearish long term call we need BABA to hit 194 or 206 followed by more price action that we won’t mention now to not create excess of speculation.
Conclusion
For the moment bulls need to take 178.45 on the upside and above today’s high we will maintain 194 target as secure, bears need to take 168.30,. Have to stress again, today’s price action and decline from 211.70, is not bearish at all… would like to be bearish with the herd… but we have not enough evidence.
Have a nice day.
Carlos
Seeking Options Team
Seeking Options Team – RQLAB Please email us if you want to be part of this group at [email protected]
SeekingOptions.com its partners and/or 3rd party affiliates are in open entry/closing positions in all of the above stocks, options, or other forms of equities. The trades provided in the above daily/weekly watchlist are simulations based on SeekingOptions oscillators strictly for educational purposes only, and not to solicit any stock , option or other form of equity. Under Section 202(a)(11)(A)-(E) of the Advisers Act this information is not considered investment or portfolio advisement from an authorized broker registered by the S.EC. (Securities Exchange Committee) and is limited to the scope of education in the form of market commentary through simulated trades via SeekingOptions.com indicators, and other educational tools.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Use of any of this information is entirely at your own risk, for which SeekingOptions.com will not be liable. Neither we nor any third parties provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or suitability of the information and content found or offered in the material for any particular purpose. You acknowledge that such information and materials may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. All information exists for nothing other than entertainment and general educational purposes. We are not registered trading advisors. SeekingOptions.com is not a registered investment Advisor or Broker/Dealer. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
