by Carlos Narváez | Dec 28, 2016 | RQLAB
PCR for tomorrow, Wednesday December 28th, is 2.116 and comes from inversion territory. We have 236,628 calls versus 500,794 puts. The change was executed at 3.095, this combination of factors would make us more confident on the long side, but instead we are going to continue being cautious and playing this market by ear. We have a very bullish approximation on $AAPL while it manages to consolidate above 116.56 and on AMD while it holds above 11.78 and ideally above 12.
We expect INTC to find resistance between 37.85 and 38.23 to lately find support at 36.21 to later finally finish our long term quest at the 40 area.
For TNA, you will see on this chart (link) that we modified the location of the wave 4 we are looking for to adjust it to ideal scenario. Target for wave 4 was 104.83; after hours low was 104.60, so for tomorrow our standard expectation should be a gap up toward 107.45 to complete five waves up off of the lows, we should not be too excited in case 107.50 is taken on TNA; would be a minimal extension and not a breakout. Under 103.49 we should reassess this projection but support would be 103.23 and we should continue monitoring alternatives. A break under 101.13 still has to us looking for 97.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 28, 2016 | RQLAB
$NVDA, hitting previous 1.764 extension on the micro (link)
For the m medium term structure, the only available extension still un-hit is 6.854 at 129.29 chart here (link) support should be 93.26. Additionally, there is no bullish case we can make on NVDA, there is only a projected move higher that has been developing in three waves, chart here (link).
Despite there is no bullish case we can make on NVDA it doesn’t mean price can not continue moving higer so it is our duty to grasp some clues considering previous price action at these same fibonaccis under similar counts. Based on the exclusive behavior observed on NVDA, today’s correction is not worrisome and as we have discussed this action might be chasers being punished. We have no position at the moment but we are interested in the 105.14-105.66 range and we will maintain a cautiously-bullish approximation for as long as 102 holds looking for 139.68 at a minimum and that’s a very decent risk reward. Curiously there are no IRB’s yet.
Join us at #RQLAB
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 27, 2016 | RQLAB
We Can’t neglect the fact that holiday trading volume is taking a place in our market, hence we will update the chart here (link) same 10 minutes setup, HOD on Friday was 103.99 so we have to wait to see if current support at 103.25 holds, if that support holds we should be looking for 105.61 and 105.96 as ideal targets for wave iii off of the lows contrary case we should focus our eyes at the 97.58 area.
That is all what price is telling us at the moment, we have arrived to the end of the month, and PCR for this week was heavy inverted last Monday, December 19th, at 1.568, current value is 2.116. Based on PCR, we should be somewhat optimistic for the week, but price still needs to confirm.
Based on cycles, one more low still could be seen on IWM/TNA/RUT, but risk reward still would favor the long side of the market at least until January 3rd.
Some notes from December 23rd
Based on EW, this decline has been very corrective, this is pullbacks have occurred in three waves, so there is nothing bearish to talk about yet and even our current expectations are that TNA should see lower levels while it does not take 107.54 on the upside, we should expect 97.58 -equivalent to 1% extension- hold and correction finishes there.
We have our macro levels to watch on TNA and the micro we could expect a bounce into today, that should be corrective in nature. Setup is here (link), stop at 101.13 targets for 104.15 and 105.61.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 23, 2016 | RQLAB
On this update monthly chart for $RVX (link) you will notice second horizontal line is providing the support we expected for the volatility on $RUT, so current price action is not surprising and as we have been considering this is an area to watch carefully and we have been reducing positions in our stocks.
The question we ask ourselves is, is this the start of a regular decline or the start of something uglier?
Based on Elliot Waves, this decline has been very corrective, this is pullbacks have occurred in three waves, so there is nothing bearish to talk about yet and even our current expectations are that $TNA should see lower levels while it does not take 107.54 on the upside, we should expect 97.58 -equivalent to 1% extension- hold and correction finishes there.
There is always a possibility for 91.36-89.90 as seen on this chart here (link), but at the moment that deeper scenario is not probable.
2C-P is at 83.50, still high, if we could get the 60 area that should be better.
It is weird that market declines into these dates. Retail looks to be in charge, according to Leo Valencia, the renowned volatility expert from Gamma Optimizer. That is contrary to what big money is doing, Mikey reported largest fresh bet of the day was $IWM Feb $136 calls bought 5,000X at $3.50 and 2,500X at $3.67, for $2.75M.
We have our macro levels to watch on TNA and the micro we could expect a bounce into today, that should be corrective in nature. Setup is here (link), sto at 101.13 targets for 104.15 and 105.61.
$RVX, Recap from November 26th
Additionally, looking at $RVX or volatility for Russell, chart here (link) this has arrived to the lower end of the channel, meaning that at least a bounce in volatility should be expected, on a monthly chart (link), you will notice red lines support were no broken even under the pressure of iii of 3 and v of 3, so we have serious doubts the same levels will be broken under the current price action, a break under those levels, where alerts have been set would be a real indication we are facing the epicenter of primary wave 3, as unkie Don noted on Thursday November 24th.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays..
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 22, 2016 | RQLAB
Current support for TNA is at 103.97 or .618, chart here (link). That’s all we can say based on EWA right now.
There is no much help from open interest either, PCR is at 2.501, yesterday’s change in open interest was executed into inversion territory CPCR: .627, the short term razzmatazz wave shows a downward path from today, December 22nd, into Wednesday December 28th, so, whoever pushed long trades yesterday is wrong or the razz waves are clearly inverted.
Last big trades reported were mixed:
SPX June 30th (Q) 2,500/2,600 call spreads, 19,600X for $11M buy, executed on December 20th followed by another big trade Jan 25th 225s, puts, size buy at >$2M.
So the big bets are on the long side for now, but they have bought enough time to get paid.
Moore’s 2C-P went up to 82.20, high, but stable with a high outflow of money. We have to watch if yesterday low marked a local bottom.
Market continue being cyclically oversold based on FNG charts.
