by Carlos Narváez | Dec 13, 2016 | RQLAB
XLF :
We still can squeeze 25.11 on XLF with resistance at 26.74, this upper range is reasonable probable for as long as 23.17 holds. Chart here (link).
OIH :
Ideally, but not necessarily should pullback to 32.18-32.76 support is 34.35, previous .764 retrace. Chart here (link).
CPA :
We will update support for CPA to 92.87, stops at 87.69 and targets at 117. Confirmation of target comes once CPA breaks above 99. Normally we would set target for CPA at 107.69, but we have reported previously how CPA behaves, this make us to move our target to 117. Chart here (link).
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 13, 2016 | RQLAB
TNA bottomed at 103.77, so bears did a great job providing a very clean count. For today, should the market advance above 106.97 we can consider bottom is in; 111.22 should be established as reasonable probable target for TNA with potential extensions to 114, chart here (link). So, once again market has made things easier, lowering a potential entry to 106.98 instead of chasing a breakout above 109.18.
STOCKS
On all the following stocks we were waiting for a pullback, which was accomplished yesterday in some of them, should they rally back above confirmation points, trend resumes with good risk/reward ratios:
CMA, still above ideal entry
EXTN still above ideal entry
ENVA, very interesting with this retest of 1% extension
WAC, still we need more price action
TCS: Above 8.34 should confirm uptrend
TCF: Still holding above supports, (link)
JOUT, set alerts at 45.34 to confirm continuation, would not touch it for the moment
BPOP, holding above 43.06 support (link)
CCBG, above 23.15 start to confirm out 28 target
ATW: Above 15.03 trend resumes
Previous Update: TNA on Friday left a nice setup for a pullback to 105.63 and potentially, if bears have some luck into 103.53, fibonaccis here (link). We would like to point out though, that even we have a projection for 103.53 this is not a recommendation to short but to watch for buying opportunities with proper stops. Additionally a test of 101.10 area with strong reversal above 103.53 it is a serious signal that market is ready to extend to new highs. We should not short TNA with conviction here and we should pay serious attention to what the price does at 101, if that level is seen.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 12, 2016 | RQLAB
A neutral case for the market:
—01
SPX
I would be extremely concerned if SPX goes above 2274, as seen here (link), any advance above this level with further progress above 2311 gonna put bears in serious danger, since from that very moment (once above 2311) 2274 is going to act as support on all pullbacks, a breakout above the range is a serious breakout and we should expect 2390-2500 to be hit sooner rather than later. Double support for SPX is 2136.
Xel’naga’s sentiment reading is at 93, that bodes well for a pullback too; last time this signal triggered yielded a five percent pullback, but topping process takes time. RVX, has not even broken first line of support on this chart here (link), that’s something we denoted on our previous updates, we do not expect RVX breaks under 14.20 despite the strength of this rally.
—02
TNA on Friday left a nice setup for a pullback to 105.63 and potentially, if bears have some luck into 103.53, fibonaccis here (link). We would like to point out though, that even we have a projection for 103.53 this is not a recommendation to short but to watch for buying opportunities with proper stops. Additionally a test of 101.10 area with strong reversal above 103.53 it is a serious signal that market is ready to extend to new highs. We should not short TNA with conviction here and we should pay serious attention to what the price does at 101, if that level is seen.
—03
We should not allow FED meeting this week to cloud our minds, this is a non event.
Supports for the big banks
- JPM: 79.33
- BAC: 21.45
- C: 59.49
- AIG: 64.51
- GS: 230.09
- USB: 47.97 (beautiful chart, link)
- MS: 37.57 (the leader)
- PRU: 89.77 (perfect fibonacci pinball, link)
- ZION: 38.89
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 9, 2016 | RQLAB
TNA
From 91.76 support TNA managed to climb 19% to yesterday’s highs at 108. We have had 108-114 as targets areas for about one month in our books and we have been trading the long side based on the micro patterns.
The question we ask now is, should we be chasing the last squiggle to 113.46 or 5% more in the upside? The answer depends, ideally we should get a pullback to 102.88-103.38 as seen here (
link), in case we have this micro pullback, stop for any trade entered at 103 area should be 100.30 with potential target at 110.45-113.45 and this is a decent risk reward. In any other case we are reluctant to chase a 5% move to the upside, simply because if market starts to correct, standard retraces for support are 87.35-80.42 and this move has been so fast that from here to 98.76 there is only air to support a correction.
For any trade chasing 113.46-114, hard stop should be 106.25
Citigroup
If we had to chase something, that would be our lagger in the XLF sector, Citigroup, with a tight stop under 57.92 and target at 66.37. Long term Fibonacci here (
link) and red Fibonacci with .886 retrace support at 57.92, here (
link).
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 8, 2016 | RQLAB
Market Updates for $TNA, $C, $XLI and $NUGT
TNA
Yesterday’s update remains fully applicable:
Now what? Well, this is a point where we must work on recognizing the probabilities for the market to take out our wall at 101.42 and advance above it consistently, not only in a spike up, but in a trend mode for 105-108 and finally 113.46.
For now immediate average support for the market is at 94.93,
with more detailed fibonaccis here (link2), by opening link 2, things are very clear, should the market take today’s highs, this is 101.30, immediate target is 103.03, with clear level to watch at 101.42, once/if market hits 103.03, previous resistance at 101.42, 100.31 and 100.21 will become support, Ideally, it must hold 101.21, and by doing that we can increase target to 108 once 103 is retaken. Think the path is more clear now and less risky.
As an additional note: Volatility is being stretched too much, 16.14 is next support line on RVX and we seriously doubt that 14.06 line is going to be taken consistently, chart here (link). Reason we are very cautious here.
For tomorrow Thursday, ideal support for TNA is 101.6 or gray .618, chart here (link), under 101.6, support is 101.10. For trades, those levels can be bought with stops at 98.72, above 103.38 target for TNA is 106.25. Today we started longs at 100.80 and 101.90, we got 103, but we decided to hold with GTC stops.
NUGT
We must be ready to buy NUGT above 8.83, if we notice strength in the price, we should not overthink, target 9.75-9.97. Stop 8.08
Citigroup
Very close to targets posted on November 14th. Citigroup: target 60.02-61.96 (Right now best R/R is on this old lagger)
XLI
No change from November 14th
We consider 62.94 on XLI is reasonable probable, chart here (
link) and once/if this level is taken we can elaborate secure targets for 65.50 and 66.99.
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by Carlos Narváez | Dec 7, 2016 | RQLAB
Market really tries to make things easier but sometimes we decide to ignore what price is telling us. First traders needed to wait for 99 to be taken on TNA to chase a breakout, but that level was lowered by the price to 96.50. So no longs should be trapped here on TNA.
On
RQLAB Channel we detected intraday resistance for the market at 100.21 and if you reviewed our yesterday’s update you would probably have noticed that the 4.618 extension was 100.31, chart here (
link). So far, that was the high for TNA today; 100.31. We sold our TNA longs at 99.80, and we will wait for more information to trade the long or the short side.
Now what? Well, this is a point where we must work on recognizing the probabilities for the market to take out our wall at 101.42 and advance above it consistently, not only in a spike up, but in a trend mode for 105-108 and finally 113.46.
For now immediate average support for the market is at 94.93, chart here (
link1) with more detailed fibonaccis here (
link2), by opening link 2, things are very clear, should the market take today’s highs, this is 101.30, immediate target is 103.03, with clear level to watch at 101.42, once/if market hits 103.03, previous resistance at 101.42, 100.31 and 100.21 will become support, Ideally, it must hold 101.21, and by doing that we can increase target to 108 once 103 is retaken. Think the path is more clear now and less risky.
As an additional note: Volatility is being stretched too much, 16.14 is next support line on RVX and we seriously doubt that 14.06 line is going to be taken consistently, chart here (link). Reason we are very cautious here.
NFLX
Upper support for NFLX is 123.69, next average support is at 121.78 followed by standard support at 119.95. Above those levels, new target for 129.10 should be consistent.
