by Carlos Narváez | Jan 4, 2017 | RQLAB
From gamma optimizer: The momentum chart looks very good for those of us waiting for a rocket launch, also the p-value for today’s action is excellent at 0.021 using the returns since Dec 20 as reference. There is a good chance of upside momentum continuing for the next couple of sessions at least.
Looking at net dollar changes, we observe a very curious action:
From yesterday:
If we look at the net dollar spread sheet constructed by Joel we will find that the values obtained for the correction started on November 28th (row 32) are very similar to the values obtained for December 31st (row 55). D/U ratios are very similar 2.439 versus 2.321. This leads to consider that while we can see one more low toward our 96-95 range on TNA we must stay cautiously bullish about this market, at the same time we consider that if a higher high is seen on TNA, this might be sold extremely fast.
The correction ended on Friday December 2nd, before the Italian Referendum, D/U for the bottom was 0.929 at that time, current ratio for today was 0.267 with extreme buying pressure, in addition to this; the levels signaled by Japhy on December 31st were not broken, so double bottom is still holding on IWM.
MOC was $2.1 billion on the buy side, meaning a gap up tomorrow should be sustainable.
Cyclical analysis is not clear, so we won’t look much into it.
Moores’ 2C-P has had a healthy correction from 96.10, current value is 67.60, this was previous resistance, now support area.. It is interesting that the indicator has corrected in a decent manner while market is technically flat.
Based on Elliott Wave, we have a squalid but valid five up at HOD on TNA chart here (link), so for as long as TNA holds above 100.05 we can project 105.55 at at minimum and breaking solidly above this 105.55 we can project 108.82-109.60, but if the market fails to hold 100.05 and breaks 99.95, target still should be 94.76 area.
$NVDA
Failed to hold stop that should have been set at 110.20. Currently we could project target for 96.38 on the downside, chart here (link) this should be followed by a corrective bounce to 111-112 range. It is interesting that despite a count exists for 96.38, price managed to close above 102.05, meaning macro fibonaccis are still holding.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 30, 2016 | RQLAB
$NVDA, usually has issues at 3.118 extension, currently at 116.80 for the micro pattern, chart here (link); you see the gray 3, that’s the standard extension for wave 3, but NVDA extends to 3.118, this is the reason we considered that once above 111.08 a target to 114 was secure, so far we executed trade well, right now all stops must be set at 110.20.
With only three waves up off of the lows there is no reason to make NVDA a core position yet; .764 retrace from lows is 116.22 chart here, (link), needs to hold a wave iv and give us wave v to turn NVDA into a core, but for as long as our support at 110.46 can continue extending higher and we should do well staying long specially if previous high at 120 area is taken.
GDX/NUGT
Immediate resistance for GDX is 22.10 and immediate support for NUGT is 8.69 followed by 8.30, so two conditions have to be met for we to trade the long side with some certainty: GDX must take 22.10 advancing through 22.50 and NUGT has to hold 8.69 and 8.30 at all times.
Mid day Update on NUGT
In the blue count, NUGT has completed wave 3 at the 6.854 extension and for practical purposes that’s all what matters, chart here (link); 8.08 and 7.72 are levels to watch, but considering all what extended we should not look for any continuation in wave 3 but to look for the target for wave iv in the 7.83- 7.39 range.
We could post more about the gray subdivisions in i-ii/i-ii but that’s irrelevant at the moment. 9
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 30, 2016 | RQLAB
This Thread will have daily Updates on $TNA
December 28, 2016
The setup we sent yesterday (link) got invalidated, market managed to advance during the first minutes just to get rejected at resistance chart here (link). We stopped out on the trade position we have been using in this area at 104.90 and again at 101.1. What takes our attention is that price did not break decisively under 99.95 and there was huge selling pressure, so based on EW we need price to break above 107.5 or under 99.95 while price is contained within this range we can not make a useful call for trading purposes, under 99.95 we can project 96.25 at a minimum on TNA so we have to wait..
Joel revised his charts and it looks like lots of stocks stopped at various supports. T-line or 20 DMA or GFG or deep daily retrace fibs.Unless bears keep the pressure on, we should have a decent rebound or more.
What is clear is that traders are getting bearish into next week; PCR is as high as 4.462, so we have to observe closer.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 28, 2016 | RQLAB
PCR for tomorrow, Wednesday December 28th, is 2.116 and comes from inversion territory. We have 236,628 calls versus 500,794 puts. The change was executed at 3.095, this combination of factors would make us more confident on the long side, but instead we are going to continue being cautious and playing this market by ear. We have a very bullish approximation on $AAPL while it manages to consolidate above 116.56 and on AMD while it holds above 11.78 and ideally above 12.
We expect INTC to find resistance between 37.85 and 38.23 to lately find support at 36.21 to later finally finish our long term quest at the 40 area.
For TNA, you will see on this chart (link) that we modified the location of the wave 4 we are looking for to adjust it to ideal scenario. Target for wave 4 was 104.83; after hours low was 104.60, so for tomorrow our standard expectation should be a gap up toward 107.45 to complete five waves up off of the lows, we should not be too excited in case 107.50 is taken on TNA; would be a minimal extension and not a breakout. Under 103.49 we should reassess this projection but support would be 103.23 and we should continue monitoring alternatives. A break under 101.13 still has to us looking for 97.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 28, 2016 | RQLAB
$NVDA, hitting previous 1.764 extension on the micro (link)
For the m medium term structure, the only available extension still un-hit is 6.854 at 129.29 chart here (link) support should be 93.26. Additionally, there is no bullish case we can make on NVDA, there is only a projected move higher that has been developing in three waves, chart here (link).
Despite there is no bullish case we can make on NVDA it doesn’t mean price can not continue moving higer so it is our duty to grasp some clues considering previous price action at these same fibonaccis under similar counts. Based on the exclusive behavior observed on NVDA, today’s correction is not worrisome and as we have discussed this action might be chasers being punished. We have no position at the moment but we are interested in the 105.14-105.66 range and we will maintain a cautiously-bullish approximation for as long as 102 holds looking for 139.68 at a minimum and that’s a very decent risk reward. Curiously there are no IRB’s yet.
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by Carlos Narváez | Dec 27, 2016 | RQLAB
We Can’t neglect the fact that holiday trading volume is taking a place in our market, hence we will update the chart here (link) same 10 minutes setup, HOD on Friday was 103.99 so we have to wait to see if current support at 103.25 holds, if that support holds we should be looking for 105.61 and 105.96 as ideal targets for wave iii off of the lows contrary case we should focus our eyes at the 97.58 area.
That is all what price is telling us at the moment, we have arrived to the end of the month, and PCR for this week was heavy inverted last Monday, December 19th, at 1.568, current value is 2.116. Based on PCR, we should be somewhat optimistic for the week, but price still needs to confirm.
Based on cycles, one more low still could be seen on IWM/TNA/RUT, but risk reward still would favor the long side of the market at least until January 3rd.
Some notes from December 23rd
Based on EW, this decline has been very corrective, this is pullbacks have occurred in three waves, so there is nothing bearish to talk about yet and even our current expectations are that TNA should see lower levels while it does not take 107.54 on the upside, we should expect 97.58 -equivalent to 1% extension- hold and correction finishes there.
We have our macro levels to watch on TNA and the micro we could expect a bounce into today, that should be corrective in nature. Setup is here (link), stop at 101.13 targets for 104.15 and 105.61.
