by IKE | Aug 18, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Market so far looking flat this morning post the FOMC meeting. $SPY (New (Bear ETF) SH or SPY): Long on a close of 38.20 or higher. Placing the initial protective sell-stop at 37.78, one tick below the 8/15 low. Dollar (New Rec: UUP): Long on a close above 24.58. Place the initial protective sell-stop at 24.42, one tick below yesterday’s low.
Despite a modest bounce in Philly Fed headline data – thanks purely to a jump in ‘hope’ from 33.7 to 45.8 (the highest in 18 months) – the underlying components of the Philly fed survey are a disaster. New orders collapsed, employment crashed to 7 year lows, Average workweek plunged, prices paid soared, and inventories fell.
We hate to keep repeating ourselves (the dog and I) but it is what it is. The below are momentum positions so keep that in mind.
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion.Daily Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down over the next few trading
days.
$ES_F 60 minutes Chart
Intraday Es: 240m FL OB, 60m OS (should have BullRev next Bar), 15m Bull so sync up for 1st 15m bar trade..VV AD1.182 Bullish.
$SPX 15 minutes Chart
In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Fed’s Dudley Speech
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:00 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Two trade alerts we will be following today. $PPG and $MCD trades triggered short yesterday – Check Room for Details.
Initial Jobless Claims
See you in the chat room
Thanks
-IKE
by IKE | Aug 17, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Today is FED day so expect a lots of movements in the stock market – it wont be a quite day for a sure 🙂
Intraday ES Trading: 240m Bull, 60m Bull, VV Pre Mkt AD = .81 Bear
Daily Trend Bear: At least a multi-day high should be near completion, if not complete yesterday.
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion
Comments: There is a short SPY index if we trade and close below yesterday’s lows. This is based on above momentum comments and EW levels.
Note: $TLT has triggered long as well, aligning with $SPY, $SPX Shorts
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Bullard speech
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
Good Luck.
-IKE
by IKE | Aug 16, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Just a quick market update, futures are trading lower this morning.
In order to start signaling a local top in place, price needs to break below Friday’s low (2179.50 $SPX) followed by 2172 $SPX.
If we see that, then we can start assuming that a corrective pullback as wave 2 of 3 has begun, which should take price back to at least the .50 to .618 before completing.
Otherwise, until then it is still possible to see a few subdivisions higher, with 2196 SPX continuing to act as the next resistance above.
Intraday $ES_F Trades: This morning $ES_F 60m is Bull, VV pre market AD = 1.37 9mildly bull). Technically ES has met the minimum count for a W.5 of 5
$ES_F Daily Trend : Bull with the fast line in the OB zone. A multi-day W.5:5 high should be near, if not complete yesterday (August 15, 2016).
$ES_F Weekly Trend : Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion.
Comments: As stated yesterday we are waiting for an S&P daily DTosc BearRev before considering shorts.
$ES_F 60 Minutes Chart
$ZN_F 240 Minute Chart
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
12:30 PM Fed’s Lockhart speech
See you in the chat room
Thanks
-IKE
by Alpha | Aug 15, 2016 | Market Update
I am so angry right now !!!!!!!!
I just came back to my house. There are 4 police cars and 6 police officers in my home. The front door had been knocked off the hinges, stuff everywhere, and apparently they were looking for something. So I’m stuck outside with this police officer and they are inside searching through everything, even our laundry.
They checked inside my closets under my mattress. They tore my things apart. So, as you can imagine, I’m getting upset, and I’m trying figure out what’s going on.
I asked if they had a search warrant, and if I could see it.
The cop in my bedroom yells, “Where did you hide it at? We know it’s here! We are searching.”
Then I yell back, “If I had an idea of what you’re looking for sir, maybe I could help!” He shoots me the “you wanna go to jail?” look, so I shut up and watch one of the other police officers look down at his phone.
Then he shouts, “Guys Stop! Hold on. We’re in the wrong house! The #Pokémon is next door!”
The above post got a lot of attention on my facebook personal page – I got so much heat from my family and close friends, I could relate to why most traders have heard the statistics…”95% of traders lose money,” “Only 5% of traders can make a living at it,” or “Only 1% of traders really make money.” Whatever the particular number is from recent studies, the fact is, many traders will lose money and it simply cannot be avoided. All sorts of reasons are given for it, such as poor money management, bad timing, bad government policy, poor regulation or a poor strategy.
These are all well and good, and some of those do definitely play a role in individual trading success, but there is a deeper reason. A deeper reason as to why most traders will lose regardless of what methods they employ, its simply not understanding the truth, that the market is probably rigged, probably setup this way!!
Retail traders fall in the pitfall of listening to other friends, fellow traders who bought the stock that went from $20 to $200 (or whatever number %) and analysts all over the TV saying it is, then you feel that you are missing out, to only jump in too late!!. Or they might decide to wear a bear hat, just because they are skeptic and want to be contrarian, to find out that they lost shirt shorting on a breaking out stock.
If you fell for the above joke, like I did, feel free to share this post. Don’t take life too seriously, and enjoy your day.
Oh and Remember this chart?
Many traders felt that we are at the top every time we hit record all time high
Source:
(StockTwits)@jackdamn
Be nimble, trade the price action and yes as of today the Stock market hit another record high – sigh!!.
See you in the chat room
Thanks
Alpha (aka IQ)
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by Alpha | Aug 12, 2016 | Market Update
Market is quite this morning, with no change to the trend as the Intraday for $ES_F as follows:
- 240 minute is Bullish
- 60 minute is Fast Line Over Bought
- Vector Vest indicator AD : 1.82 Bullish
In Conclusion for today – its Mixed – no clear edge for Daily swing trades. will be looking for scalp opportunities. There is no sync for 1st 15m trade
Trade setup for the AM session, as the 30 minutes turned DOWN TREND, it would help if Bonds go Up north for further Action in the Indexes.
Notable Underlying – High IVR (above 50), IV (above 15), and no future earnings within 45 days (source: TastyTrade)
Daily $ES_F Chart Show in a squeeze that may Run higher..
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
$TWLO Keeps making New High
Great Call from Jim Cramer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXWP_OqCrkY
Good Luck Trading, and join our Chat Room
Thank you
Alpha
by IKE | Aug 11, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Good Morning Traders
Indexes continued net sideways to up into Tuesday as we anticipated with Daily charts being net Bull.
Tuesday-Thursday is the high probability TIME target to complete the Daily and Weekly highs 8. The Daily momentum made is BearRevs Yesterday (Wednesday), if the indexes are sideways to down today, the 13 ema, should also make a BearRev signal, the initial confirmation the daily /weekly highs are complete.
I am not expecting much the remainder of this week. While that could certainly change, there are no indications of anything exciting in the works. I’ll reiterate my belief this is a time to have long volatility positions as a hedge in the event markets do turn.
The indexes have already made a minor Pattern Reversal Signal the top is complete (see the ES 60m below),but must trade below the Aug. 2, potential W.4 low ($ES_F) to confirm.
Daily Chart
Join our chat room, for more market updates.
Good luck trading
IKE