by IKE | Aug 18, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Market so far looking flat this morning post the FOMC meeting. $SPY (New (Bear ETF) SH or SPY): Long on a close of 38.20 or higher. Placing the initial protective sell-stop at 37.78, one tick below the 8/15 low. Dollar (New Rec: UUP): Long on a close above 24.58. Place the initial protective sell-stop at 24.42, one tick below yesterday’s low.
Despite a modest bounce in Philly Fed headline data – thanks purely to a jump in ‘hope’ from 33.7 to 45.8 (the highest in 18 months) – the underlying components of the Philly fed survey are a disaster. New orders collapsed, employment crashed to 7 year lows, Average workweek plunged, prices paid soared, and inventories fell.
We hate to keep repeating ourselves (the dog and I) but it is what it is. The below are momentum positions so keep that in mind.
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion.Daily Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down over the next few trading
days.
$ES_F 60 minutes Chart
Intraday Es: 240m FL OB, 60m OS (should have BullRev next Bar), 15m Bull so sync up for 1st 15m bar trade..VV AD1.182 Bullish.
$SPX 15 minutes Chart
In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Fed’s Dudley Speech
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:00 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Two trade alerts we will be following today. $PPG and $MCD trades triggered short yesterday – Check Room for Details.
Initial Jobless Claims
See you in the chat room
Thanks
-IKE
by IKE | Aug 17, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Today is FED day so expect a lots of movements in the stock market – it wont be a quite day for a sure 🙂
Intraday ES Trading: 240m Bull, 60m Bull, VV Pre Mkt AD = .81 Bear
Daily Trend Bear: At least a multi-day high should be near completion, if not complete yesterday.
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion
Comments: There is a short SPY index if we trade and close below yesterday’s lows. This is based on above momentum comments and EW levels.
Note: $TLT has triggered long as well, aligning with $SPY, $SPX Shorts
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Bullard speech
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
Good Luck.
-IKE
by IKE | Aug 16, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Just a quick market update, futures are trading lower this morning.
In order to start signaling a local top in place, price needs to break below Friday’s low (2179.50 $SPX) followed by 2172 $SPX.
If we see that, then we can start assuming that a corrective pullback as wave 2 of 3 has begun, which should take price back to at least the .50 to .618 before completing.
Otherwise, until then it is still possible to see a few subdivisions higher, with 2196 SPX continuing to act as the next resistance above.
Intraday $ES_F Trades: This morning $ES_F 60m is Bull, VV pre market AD = 1.37 9mildly bull). Technically ES has met the minimum count for a W.5 of 5
$ES_F Daily Trend : Bull with the fast line in the OB zone. A multi-day W.5:5 high should be near, if not complete yesterday (August 15, 2016).
$ES_F Weekly Trend : Bear: A multi-week high should be at or near completion.
Comments: As stated yesterday we are waiting for an S&P daily DTosc BearRev before considering shorts.
$ES_F 60 Minutes Chart
$ZN_F 240 Minute Chart
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
12:30 PM Fed’s Lockhart speech
See you in the chat room
Thanks
-IKE
by IKE | Aug 11, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
Good Morning Traders
Indexes continued net sideways to up into Tuesday as we anticipated with Daily charts being net Bull.
Tuesday-Thursday is the high probability TIME target to complete the Daily and Weekly highs 8. The Daily momentum made is BearRevs Yesterday (Wednesday), if the indexes are sideways to down today, the 13 ema, should also make a BearRev signal, the initial confirmation the daily /weekly highs are complete.
I am not expecting much the remainder of this week. While that could certainly change, there are no indications of anything exciting in the works. I’ll reiterate my belief this is a time to have long volatility positions as a hedge in the event markets do turn.
The indexes have already made a minor Pattern Reversal Signal the top is complete (see the ES 60m below),but must trade below the Aug. 2, potential W.4 low ($ES_F) to confirm.
Daily Chart
Join our chat room, for more market updates.
Good luck trading
IKE
by IKE | Aug 9, 2016 | IKE, Market Update
The S&P 500 ($ES_F) futures trade off overnight highs, floating two points above fair value. The $ES_F long posted at close yesterday reached both the 1.27% and 1.618% targets overnight.
$ES_F and all indices are in same relative position.
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high should be complete this week.
Daily Trend Bull: The net trend should be sideways to up over the next few trading days.
The Daily chart posted Saturday in the Chat Room has support, resistance and timing leveles.
Daily 8ma looking back OSC fast line is in Overbought zone while 13ma looking back is still bullish, a need for the 8ma to have a BearRev and at least 13ma looking back fast line to be Over bought before Daily and weekly trends should turn Bear
Intra Day – 240 Bull- 60 OB – VV AD Pre mkt = 1.55 – Razz Sync = Up ..looking for 60m BullRev to align with 240m Bull – so today’s net orientation sideways to up
15 Minute Chat
The above 15 minute $ES_F pre-market chart count are just short term.
60 Minute $ES_F Chart
The 60 minute chart again demonstrate the power of Fibs.
Regarding Crude Oil, to consider any downside scenario, we have to see if the 44.10 resistance would be taken our or not. If we go back below 41.7 support area, we should think that the high is in and we will have another short opportunity.
The Best Trading Chat Room. Learn to trade Stocks, Options, Futures, FOREX – True Financial Social Network Community
We will continue posting updates in our Chat Room
Happy Trading
IKE
by IKE | Aug 3, 2016 | IKE, Market Update, Trading
Futures are trading slightly down this morning, but otherwise well above yesterday’s low still. Since we have a potential micro 5 waves up off yesterday’s low, there is a setup for possible upside today, either as part of a corrective bounce or even the start of red wave (v) targeting a new local high. 2163 – 2166.50 SPX is the next resistance above if we do see a move higher today, otherwise a break below yesterday’s low should lead to at least a test of the 2139 $SPX support below for red wave (iv).
Longer term Weekly OB as is Daily so momos say lower. VV AD = .75, Razz no sync
30 Minute Chart for $ES_F
$SPX 1 hour Micro view
To Recap:
Weekly Trend Bull Over Bought: A multi-week high should be at or near completion.
Daily Trend Bear: With today’s daily DTosc BearRev in the oscillator range, a multi-day, if not multi-week high should be near completion, if not complete yesterday.
Morning 15m minute ES trade 60m Bull, 15 Bear n o sync for this trade
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 Treasury Refunding Quarterly Announcement
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
For more update, please visit us in our chat room ..
Good Luck Trading..
