Major Headlines for May 4, 2018 | $AAPL, $BABA, $TWTR, $IBM, $DIA, $CELG, $SPY, $TSLA

Major Headlines for May 4, 2018 | $AAPL, $BABA, $TWTR, $IBM, $DIA, $CELG, $SPY, $TSLA

by | May 4, 2018 | Market Update

Powerful move for the last two days to say the least, it was pretty wild, on Thursday, market tried breaking down below the 200 SMA to only rip back up capturing it and closing shy from green.. on Friday (May 4th, 2018) today in chat room we saw $SPY tried breaking the 200SMA, only to bounce back up and close the day over 1.20% with all major Indecies well in the green.

#Bitcoin is over 10K is it correlated to the stock market? maybe not but it did move pretty much up on heavy volume..

Dow closes up more than 300 points after Apple sparks tech rally

What did we do today?

We pulled our powder and triggered some long plays in the market, taking positions in $SPY, $QQQ, $TSLA and $BABA on the long side.. Those Tickers were traded on different strikes.. also some traders took $NFLX and $AMZN on the long side..

$BABA Daily Chart

and here is how the $SPY Ended the day – we are not out of the woods yet we are still in a wedge that is about to release some energy, check with us next week on how to play the next move, hitting 50MA, and hence a pullback is likely to happen.

SPY Daily From seekingOptions

Some Other Market highlights

  1. Exclusive: Redstone makes concessions on Viacom CEO to clinch CBS… (REUTERS.COM)
  2. Dan Healing on Twitter (TWITTER.COM)
  3. Dow rallies 350 points as Apple leads tech higher (CNBC.COM)
  4. Buffett Buys a Further 75 Million Apple Shares, Sells Out of IBM (BLOOMBERG.COM)
  5. MannKind Sees Meaningful Spike In Insurance Coverage (SEEKINGALPHA.COM)
  6. Trade The News: Real time stock, forex, bond news analysis squawk (TRADETHENEWS.COM)
  7. 60 Minutes on Twitter (TWITTER.COM)
  8. Jefferies – pre Conf Call note – CELG Q1 results were solid – and a we (INVESTORVILLAGE.COM)
  9. Consumer – Top Gainers / Losers as of 12:00 PM (05/04/2018) (SEEKINGALPHA.COM)
  10. As Trump’s tariffs bite, small U.S. manufacturers begin to tap the… (REUTERS.COM)
  11. Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway has sold completely out of IBM (CNBC.COM)
  12. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway will make about $700 million annually on Apple’s dividend alone
  13. Elon Musk defends his strange conference-call performance, promises ‘short burn of the century’
  14. Solid jobs report is just enough for traders to retake the market narrative

 

Make sure to join our Team in our Chat room to stay updated with market updates and trade opportunities, also sign up to our Free News Letter..

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The 2468 target on $SPX still needs evidence to confirm | Reviewing $AMZN, – $ES_F, $SPY, $QQQ

The 2468 target on $SPX still needs evidence to confirm | Reviewing $AMZN, – $ES_F, $SPY, $QQQ

by | Apr 30, 2018 | Pre-Market, RQLAB

SPX

At the moment, it not guaranteed if markets can go higher next week. This time we don’t have a secure pattern. Cyclical analysis is calling for higher into April 30th and Open Interest is projecting higher into the end of this week, May 4th. I like the way daily stochastics are positioned, they will provide strength in case markets decide to follow the open interest projections to the upside.

EW Analysis:

On Tuesday April 24th, based on the .618 extension that was being hit on SPX as shown in the following chart

We, across the board, warned that the excessive confidence of the bears would have to be examined and on Wednesday again, we, in the general Chat Room, warned that markets were to face the 3rd of the 3rd off the 2611.2 lows. So while we maintain that the $SPX should see the 2468 level and potentially lower we have taken an unbiased attitude looking for any evidence that shows our case for lower is wrong, evidence that allows us to capitalize on any potential truncation.

We continue monitoring $AMZN which ideally should hold 1551/1542 in order to continue advancing toward 1721/1770 area. We continue advising you that $AMZN is a must hold company, I have said this to you many times and I expect to be right again while 1540 area holds and retakes highs of this week.

Current $SPX:

The case for higher on $SPX only can be constructed this way shown in the following chart:

 

  another ABC that should take the market higher to 2775 and 2757, the resistance at 2714 is relatively important so reversal from this area should be watched in order to confirm any impulse to the downside.

Immediate pattern has support at 2742 and 2666.1; I will add more if we see one of these levels, at the moment we need more price action with base calling for 2468 but needing a move to 2757 in a C wave up.

 
QQQ, three up off the lows, needing to hold 160.63 and print one more high in order to confirm five up off the lows that allow us to buy a potential retrace in wave 2.
 

Enjoy rest of the week and do not forget to not overreact, stay patient and focused.

See you in chat room

SeekingOptions

 

Should we Adapt, How? Market potential for 2420 has increased, secure target for $SPX has been cut to 2950 | $IWM, $QQQ, $SPX

Should we Adapt, How? Market potential for 2420 has increased, secure target for $SPX has been cut to 2950 | $IWM, $QQQ, $SPX

by | Apr 8, 2018 | News Feed, RQLAB

Should we Adapt, How?

5

April, 2018

SPX
Trading Ranges
Next Levels

NEW Measures

Initially we will degrade the targets of all our leaders and ETFs from 2.618 to 1.618 in their sub-divisions that we do regularly in our live trading rooms.

Second, we will slowly work on underweight our leaders and we will move capital tactically to $SPX and its leveraged ETFs, limiting purchases from now on only if 2400 area is seen or if some parameters are met on the upside, like taking 2719 resistance in something more than 3 waves up. Most importantly, we should cut exposure on Indexes to only 20-30% of our portfolios once we arrive to the 2950 area and we must have cut most of our non essential longs.

Options: Much more importantly, we will limit option trading on companies; we should only trade options on $SPX/$IWM and $QQQ, trading options on companies from now on should be limited to when we are looking for 1% and 1.618 retraces, you have to adapt and limit the way you make money.

If you want to trade options, make sure you are pointing your target at secure 1% and 1.618 retraces, prepare for some companies to get to exuberant levels, but be aware something that goes up 10% today might/will be down 20% tomorrow, you will lose more money than what you intend to make by following something that goes up only by going up.

We will cut our target for the market to 3100 from 3200 and we should only go after the 3,000 level with limited capital, by the time market hits 2950 our only positions should be on indexes $SPX/$IWM/$QQQ.

Now, assuming 2950 will be seen before 2191, some parameters should be met, starting with the fact that the market should not break under 2373 area.

First approach, under 2587 we continue considering that 2420/2375 are targets, 2327 represents .764 below the standard 1%, this is our primary approach, while we think pullback can go below 2420, but we don’t think it will exceed 2327; if standard pullback is playing out. Traders should consider shorts for as long as market breaks and stay under 2587, and continue shorting when $SPX breaks 2506.  Round number for this first approach is 2373.9.

 

Second approach is a confirmation of first approach, below 2587 market might or might not find support at 2447, acceleration under 2506.3 only confirms 2447 is solid target. Acceleration down under 2447 only confirms our number at 2373 is secure.

 

Third approach, as shown in chart below, only points to 2422, implying extensions to 2373 might be short lived.

 

“A VIX future effectively serves as a means reversion indicator in that it tells us what the market expects as a mean”- Adam Warner

Conclusion:

Some new rules have been set, bears are right shorting the market, below 2587 we confirm 2506, below 2506 we confirm 2447, below 2447 we confirm 2373. Everything should be slowly under weighted, except for the indexes, where we can accumulate tactical positions. For example, if $SPX 2719 is taken and $SPX holds above 2687.5 on pullbacks, we can tactically go for 2823. By concentrating our energies on $SPX/$IWM/$QQQ we will avoid the risk of being too spread out.

 

Rules
  • Impulsive Waves always divide into 5 waves: Waves 1,2,3,4,& 5; followed by a corrective wave, typically A, B & C.
  • The waves that are numbered (1,2,3,4,5) are in the direction of the Trend.
  • The waves that are Lettered (A, B, C ) are against the Trend.
  • Structure = 5-3-5-3-5 (21) followed by 5-3-5 (13)
  • Wave 1 could divide into an impulsive 5 wave or a Leading Diagonal.
  • Wave 3 is always an Impulsive 5 wave and is never the shortest wave.
  • Waves 5 & C are always 5 waves but it could be an Ending Diagonal.
  • Wave 2, 4 and B always subdivide in 3 wave corrections.
  • Wave 2 Never moves beyond origin of Wave 1.
  • Wave 3 must go beyond Wave 1.
  • Wave 4 never moves into wave 1 range.
  • Wave A can be a three wave structure or Leading Diagonal.
  • Wave 5 often goes beyond Wave 3, if not it is called “Truncation”.
  • The Chart shows a bull Market. For a Bear Market the chart can be flipped and all the rules remain the same.
  • The same pattern can be viewed in all time frames: Thick Charts, 1 min, 2 min, 3 min, 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 h, 4h, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts etc…
Guidelines:
  • Waves 2 & 4 will almost always Alternate into ZigZags, Flats, or Combos.
  • Wave 4 can be Flats, Triangles or Combinations
  • Wave 2 which is usually ZigZag or a ZigZag combination.
  • Wave 4 Usually Terminates in the same area as the Previous Wave 4 of Wave 3.
  • Typical Fib counts for Wave 2 is 50%, 61.8% of Wave 1.
  • Typical Fib Count of Wave 4 is 38.2% or 61.8% of wave 3.
  • See the charts for other Fibonacci relations.
  • Often Waves ad-hear to the laws of Channeling:
  • 5 ends around the Chanel line extension of endpoints of 1-3, and
  • Wave 4 may end at the parallel line point 1-3. (please look at the charts)
Rules
  • ZigZag is always a 3 wave structure.
  • Structure = 5-3-5
  • Wave B never move beyond the start of Wave A.
  • Wave B is subdivided into a three wave pattern: zigzag, flat, triangle or any combination thereof.
  • Wave A can be either an Impulsive wave or a Leading Diagonal.
  • Wave C can subdivide into 5 wave structures: a Diagonal or an Impulse wave.
Guidelines:
  • Waves A and C connected is usually parallel to the Line connecting the origin of the ZigZag to point B.
  • Waves A and C usually are Equal in length.
  • Wave A and C are more often subdivided into an Impulse Wave.
  • Wave C is always ended beyond Wave A.
  • Besides Waves A & C usually being equal, the ratios in a correction are less accurate than in an Impulse Waves 1,3 & 5.
  • See the chart for Typical Fibonacci Retracements.

Glossary

R within links stands for Running

F within links stands for Forced.

(()) double parenthesis stand for macro count from 2009 lows.

As shown on the Chart below that the most probable count for VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF.  We can see wave (2) was a running flat, beautiful in it’s nature, you don’t need to do anything; the flat plays and develops itself naturally, this is the reason I cordially invite you take it as natural.

We prefer this count over other more tortured lucubration, if we say for example, that this is a 1-2-(1)-(2); we will have an overlap in any subdivision that we force versus the February 2016 decline, it is clear here on chart  below

52.31 high of wave (1) versus 50.35 low of the 2016 decline, overlap is clear; now if we gracefully divide the counts as macro ((I))-((II))-((III)), definitely wave ((III)) off the 2009 lows has ran its course  at the 2.618 for wave V of macro ((III)), we have an overlap within macro ((III)), so please pay close attention because what I am posting here is important, and if you don’t read carefully we will make a tremendous mistake.

So, here is the important question, based on this chart alone, what is the standard pullback? Well, standard 1% for this chart  is 61.01 or a 17% correction from current levels. If this ETF tracks SPX perfectly, this would imply SPX should see the 2190 level. While the chart is beautiful, it’s implications are not. So first let me tell you what I think, I think primarily that bears are being honest and are playing it’s game fair, we, the bulls, are committing a mistake because our time is running out fast, our time to be aggressive on the long side is over gentlemen.

If some upside is left, it should be in the 5th of the V of macro ((III)), so we are playing the last squiggles of something that is ending, like miners that decide to work on a planet too close to a Supernova whose time is over, might explode anytime, we are playing a risky game… risk won’t bode well if we don’t play it with strict rules.

 

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Volatile Market and What happens Next | $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F

Volatile Market and What happens Next | $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F

by | Mar 28, 2018 | Market Update

Lately We have been experiencing very aggressive and elevated rise in market volatility, by “volatility”, we’re not referring to VIX. We’re referring to the S&P 500’s daily % movements.

The stock market’s high volatility right now is not rare. There were a lot of historical periods with high volatility. What’s rare is that the stock market’s high volatility right now was preceded by a period of extremely low volatility (i.e. 2017 – January 2018).

Here’s today’s study: what happens next when:

  1. This is the first time in 1 year (252 trading days) in which….
  2. The S&P closed up or down at least 1% vs yesterday’s CLOSE….
  3. For 21 or more trading days out of the past 42 trading days (2 months).

Here are the historical cases

  1. March 26, 2018 (current case)
  2. January 25, 2016
  3. August 29, 2011
  4. September 4, 2007
  5. March 7, 2000
  6. December 15, 1997
  7. September 27, 1990
  8. October 27, 1987
  9. November 15, 1982
  10. April 7, 1980
  11. July 11, 1973
  12. June 4, 1970
  13. June 15, 1962

Let’s look at these historical cases in detail.

*We are eliminating all the cases that occurred near a recession because the economy is nowhere near a recession today. U.S. economic growth is solid. The next recession is at least 1 year (12 months) away. The economy and stock market move in the same direction over the medium-long term.



January 25, 2016

The S&P went down over the next 3 weeks. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 5 months later in June.

August 29, 2011

The S&P went down over the next month. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 7 months later in April 2012.

March 7, 2000

The S&P swung sideways over the next week. Then it rallied for 2 more weeks before the bull market topped on March 24.

December 15, 1997

The S&P went down over the next 3 weeks. There was no “small correction” before the next “significant correction”. The next “significant correction” began 7 months later in July 1998.

September 27, 1990

The S&P went down over the next 2 weeks. The next 6%+ “small correction” began 6 months later in April 1991.

October 27, 1987

The S&P swung sideways over the next 1.5 months. Then it continued to rally fiercely until October 1989.

Conclusion

it doesnt mean past can repeat here but all we can say volatility will stay longer and over the longer time frame market can trend back higher as money flow, that will be sometime probably in June/August.

  1. The stock market’s volatility isn’t over. It’ll either swing sideways or swing downwards in a very choppy manner for the next few weeks
  2. The stock market’s next 6%+ “small correction” is months away. This supports another study, which suggests that the S&P 500 will make another 6%+ “small correction” in the second half of 2018.
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: $NKE, $MU, $CSCO, $PFE, $DBX, $TSLA, $SPY, $KR, $BABA, $WYNN & more Social News

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: $NKE, $MU, $CSCO, $PFE, $DBX, $TSLA, $SPY, $KR, $BABA, $WYNN & more Social News

by | Mar 23, 2018 | Pre-Market

PRE-MARKET MOVERS

 

UPGRADES
4. TNDM:$TNDM upgraded to Outperform at Baird. PT $7

 

DOWNGRADES

 

Trending Social Alerts
1. KR:A Kroger-Target deal? Fast Company reporting that there have been merger talks. $KR up 7% #premarket. $TGT up 2%.
3. AOI:$AOI up a good amount after hours. Revenue generating tobacco company w/ stakes in 2 Canadian LP’s and a TINY publi…
11. NOG:$NOG pulls its equity offering … tried to pull off an equity deal with a ~90% debt / EV ratio.
12. IVV:The normally invincible $IVV seeing $11b in outflows this week, that’s bloodbath level, here’s what it looks like v…
15. DXCM:$DXCM: Robert W. Baird ups to Outperform

 



Trending News Headlines

 

4. Trump threatens to veto omnibus spending bill over DACA and the border wall