If we said that we under performed last week we would make an incorrect statement and that’s a helpless approach, instead we would say that our calls for higher on indexes were right and we managed to balance our cash flows through our exposure to NQ which in summary is bigger than our exposure to IWM. This does not negate the stalling situation in which IWM is but illustrates our healthy allocation of capital.
Saying that, it seems there is an event being priced; the short term razzmatazz wave shows a considerable top was constructed last week and a potential bottom should occur into the 23rd, the indicator might be lagging at this time. The PCR for this week is less informative since it is into standard territory at PCR: 2.839 so this call for a pullback should be valid. Open interest has been one the few indicators that give us a bearish approach for this market.
Nonetheless the Change PCR was executed at 4.266 meaning traders continue betting against the rally, which we consider unnecessary since price is holding above 2236.
The long term razz shows a top into January expiration followed by a very small correction and next resumption of the trend. Looking at immediate SPX pattern, chart here (link) for as long as 2236 holds price should advance to 2362 and 2391. Once market crosses above 2311 we will update our support to 2187. For TNA we will watch the same levels we have been watching 101.05 and 99.95.
Net dollar values are very curious last time we had a D/U ratio of 0.929 combined with a Moores’ 2C-P of 71.20 TNA went from 91 to 107.20. Last value recorded on Friday, January 6th, was 0.893 and current Moores’ 2C-P is 71.10. This means that if prices holds above 100.25 and manage to climb above 105.45 chart here (link) we can be optimistic on TNA.
Cyclical analysis is bullish for IWM into the 16th, chart attached.
SHAK
The only explanation for this pullback on SHAK would be that we made a mistake on the count and labeled it wrong. So we can rework it this way chart here (link), if that is the case, support should be 35.30 and 34.26.
NUGT
For as long as 7.55 holds we could expect one more high to 11.18 in the form of wave 5 of 5 of (1), that would be a perfect fibonacci pinball.
NQ Stocks
$AMZN: Support is at 776.19, target at 822, support is buyable.
$AAPL: Support continue being 116.56. Target at 122-130
$FB: Support is 120.19 target is 128
Charts on $SPX/$ES_F updates from our Chat Room Make sure to Join to stay updated..
$ES_F Daily
$SPX Weekly
