looking at the historical charts for $SPX, it has closed within 5.3 point range within three months, so there is absolutely no upside follow through, does this mean we wont break up this tight range? For us to find out in the upcoming weeks, as we get into the historical US presidential elections.
Looking at the $ES_F
Intra-day: the 60 minutes chart is bullish
240 Minutes chart is Bearish
Daily is bearish
Weekly is Bullish
Net results today should be a down day, for it to resolve..
240 Minute chart ($ES_F)
The Daily $ES_F chart below shows the corrective pattern of this move up. Many candle bars overlap within the triangle which needs to resolve itself, up or down, Count on this chart assumes the downside, however upside resolution is not out of the questions. Close below 2132 should mean further downside to below Sept lows and close above 2182.75 should mean new ATHs.
given this tight range we have been doing IRON Condor on $SPY and $SPX every week, check room for details
Traders wake up today on a RED ink everywhere and here is the $ES_F Momentum Positions:
Weekly Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down for at least another 2-3 weeks.
Daily Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down over the next few trading days, if not weeks.
Yesterday’s rally reached the .618 retrace from the 8 Sept high which is a normal retrace. Retraces above the .786 @ 2165 would have been cause of concern for the Bear Team.
Here is the Daily chart for $ES_F , looking at the ABC setup to the FMOC
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply lower open on Tuesday, as investors kept an eye on the price fluctuations in oil, amid speculation over when the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. The Dow Jones index was down some 102 points around 5.30 a.m.
Intraday ES : 240m OB, 60m Deep OS, VV AD: .41 Bear
$ES_F 60 minutes Chart
We will be looking for the 60 minutes reversal today to align with 240 minutes and Daily… I added some more hedges yesterday..I will know I am wrong with ES breaching .786 @ 2165 – check chat room for updates
Today’s Economic Calendar
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
We are looking at $ATVI for a trade idea, so we will be buying some Call Debit Spreads – Check room for details.
$AAPL is edging higher in pre-market as there are news on a healthy demand on the #IPHONE7 sales. T-Mobile Releases PR saying “Apple’s #iphone7 and #iphone7Plus is the biggest Pre-Order in T-mobile’s History up 4 x compared to the next most popular #iphone”
All eyes on the Economic Symposium which is held at Jackson Hole and attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. We will watch for some rapid market reactions, hence trade carefully as Federal Reserve Chair Jannet Yellen is set to speak around . As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch her speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
Her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Schooled in economic thinking that confines monetary policy to the short run, central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, are grappling with a singular change: whether they can take over as guardians of long-term growth with programs that may stay in place and influence markets for decades to come.
Intraday ES:240m FL OB, 60m Bull, VV AD = a strong 2.48
Daily Trend BearRev: The net trend should be sideways to down over the next few trading days
Weekly Trend Bear: A multi-week high is overdue.
$ES_F 60 Minutes Chart
Conclusion: With VV AD and 60m Bull expecting move up to black 2 or B
There were four markets with 8 daily DTosc BearRevs in the upper ½ of their oscillators ranges yesterday: $IWF, $XLV, $TJX, $HD, these are all shorting candidates with a trade below yesterday’s lows – Check Room for Details.
Initial 5 minutes Charts were Pointing UP – Start of the day posted on our Facebook Page Group and Chat ROOM
Worth Noting that a trader in our premium room has spotted a large size buy order in $SPY calls, hence the prediction of a market will rally to 219. A few Calls were bought yesterday (Thursday August 25, 2016) in room with stop at yesterdays Low, target will be taken at Today’s Spike – THIS WAS A SHORT TERM TRADE, which looks like will be a 100% winner this morning at the time of writing this post.
Investors are waiting ahead to Jackson Hole and Yellen’s comments to provide clarity on the direction for the Rates. Janet Yellen is set to speak at 10 a.m. EST, and stock market will likely to remain in choppy mode, so as of now here is the look at the market from our point of view:
Weekly Bear: A multi-week high is overdue.
Daily Trend Bear Reversal: A multi-day, if not multi-week high should be near completion, if not complete yesterday. However, the ES daily DTosc there was a Daily BearRev yesterday
With the weekly Momentum indicators being Over Bought for the past four week, which is extreme and now the Daily momentum having a BearRev from yesterday, the Daily time frame should be Bear at least 2-3 days with perhaps a weekly top in.
Of course this must be tempered with tomorrows speech, however, this is the current technical position
ES Intraday ES: 240m OS, 60m Bull, VV AD =.95 neutral to slightly Bear
Conclusion the recent 60 minute chart shows a bounce is coming in the 2164-66 area…( Note we previously pointed out this bounce in Chat ROOM)
By U.S. stock futures dropped on Thursday, with investors staying cautious as the closely watched summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole got ready to kick off. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen isn’t speaking at the meeting until Friday, but financial markets have been lackluster all week in anticipation of what she might say about the path of interest rates.
Today we took $WMT a short position (trade), please note trade setup on the following 4 hours 30, 15 minute charts and Daily Chart for a longer time setup, they triggered the short play and we have put the trade information in chat room
Market Watching for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to speak at Kansas City Fed’s monetary policy symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
$ES_F Intraday: 240 Bear,60 OS, 15m B ear VV AD .50 Bear – still in the Camp of sideways to net down for day.
$ES_F Daily Chart
Monday: FILM Box Office
Tuesday: New Home Sales – BEST BUY REPORTS
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales – HP REPORTS
Thursday: Durable Goods and Jobless Claims – MEDTRONIC, Dollar General, Dollar Tree Reports
Friday: GDP and Consumer Sentiment
#Crude Oil showing us a good trade setup ($USO Trade)
By The pound moved sharply lower on Friday afternoon after Bloomberg News reported that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to invoke the Article 50 in early 2017. Triggering the article marks the start of formal negotiations with Brussels over the U.K.’s exit from the European Union and the decision cannot be revoked.
