Next Tesla Move | $TSLA [An Update]

Next Tesla Move | $TSLA [An Update]

On January 22nd we wrote :

I rather to take this structure on TSLA as an abc (link) with support at 339.12. I have always thought that TSLA has pending issues with the target at 518 and I still don’t understand why that target has not been met. This is the reason we have pressed TSLA on the long side on any decent setup; always looking for that pattern that takes it to that 518, which not necessarily needs to be a perfect 1-2.

So again this abc in red has support at 339.12, once it goes above 360 probabilities for higher will increase, but at the moment, at 356 they are not clear enough.  Right now it is at this ROG that comes from August 2017 (link), stochastics is at 91.58 embedded, daily 262 is at 363 and weekly 162 is at 363 too, so based on this any breakout will depend on TSLA’s ability to take and hold above 363 zone.

Monthly 162 is at 376, and 262 monthly is at 424, so based on the big picture versus the squiggles let’s see if our support at 340 area holds or if TSLA has the capacity to take  and hold above 363.

 Current, March 14th


So, by reading previous paragraphs sent on January 22nd we  can note that we have maintained a long term bullish approach on TSLA considering the long term charts; but we are sending this update because we are unusually concerned about one of our leaders. Sometimes our leaders can have a bad quarter or two, but our leaders usually come back in strong manner, erasing losses quickly after they have properly adapted to changing circumstances, but today I read some financial officers are/might be leaving TSLA and that certainly got me concerned, so we will revise all our macro supports.

First looking at  (link1)  we see there is a potential return of 60% on TSLA with ideal targets at 481and 560, based alone on the total structure of the price. Following is (link2) where there are enough hits to the 1% extension as to consider that any wave iv of any has been fulfilled; this count on link 2 at a minimum projects 450.

Initially we  will hold onto our last bull count on this (link3) before considering a reduction in our exposure; here wave 0/1/2 was a type of diagonal and now is working on the subdivision i/ii with support and ideal target at 309.79. Invalidation for this last bullish approach is 294.76, so while 309.79 can be spiked on the downside, our 294.76 should not be broken. By breaking 294.76 immediate target for TSLA should be no other than 266 (link) with Joel’s -162 monthly at 254. Average for these two approaches is 260; that level is certainly the most important spot for TSLA, holding this line our long term counts for 518/568 are still healthy and in good shape.

As to how to trade these probabilities while long shares: Once TSLA breaks 324.08 again tomorrow during regular hours traders should add 310 puts strikes and hold onto them while 344.50 is not taken, if further downside under 310 is seen and only if 294.76 is taken, traders should be more confident about this protection considering that ideally 260 should be seen.

Reducing positions in a 50-30%  is good too, waiting for opportunities to reload at 260 area.

We are still long bias and like the stock for higher prices, but ones must trade accordingly..

Seeking Options Team

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Educational Tip of the Day (SOURCE: NASDAQ.com):

J-curveTheory that says a country’s trade deficit will initially worsen after its currency depreciates because higher prices on foreign imports will more than offset the reduced volume of imports in the short run.
J Curve (2)In context of private equity, the curve that is formed by plotting returns generated by a private equity fund against time from inception to termination. There is usually negative returns (due to start up costs and management fees) in early years and investment gains in the outlying years as the portfolio of companies mature. 
Option cycle: The cycle of option expiration months. The most common cycles are: January, April, July, and October (JAJO); February, May, August, and November (FMAN); and March, June, September, and December (MJSD). 
Option elasticityThe percentage increase in an option’s value, given a 1 percentage point change in the value of the underlying security.
Value-added taxA value added tax (VAT) is a form of consumption tax. As a buyer, it is a tax on the purchase price. As a seller, it is a tax on the “value added” to a product, material or service at his/her stage of its manufacture or distribution. For example, if a television is built by a company in a country that charges VAT, the manufacturer is charged VAT on all of the parts they purchase to produce the television. Once the television is sold, the consumer pays VAT on the entire product. The VAT is ultimately passed on to the end user. 
Vertical spread: Simultaneous purchase and sale of two options that differ only in their exercise price.
Horizontal spreadThe simultaneous purchase and sale of two options that differ only in their expiration dates.
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Educational Tip of the Day (SOURCE: NASDAQ.com)
Scale inGradually taking a position in a security or market over time.
 
Prospective Earnings Growth (PEG Ratio): The idea is to scale the P/E ratio by earnings growth. Higher P/E multiples could be a result of higher growth opportunities. The usual implementation is to divide the current P/E ratio by the five-year prospective earnings growth. This ratio is problematic if expected earnings growth is negative. As with the usual P/E ratio, zero or very small earnings causes problems too. For stock selection, it is usually recommend to  look at E/P (earnings price ratio) and expected earnings growth as two separate factors rather than a single PEG ratio., and also recommend looking at different horizons for expected earnings growth. 
 
Protectionism: Notion that governments should protect domestic industry from import competition by means of tariffs, quotas, and other trade barriers.
 
Put-call parity: Option pricing principle that says, given a stock’s price, a put and call of the same class must have a static price relationship because arbitrage opportunities or activities will always reestablish such a relationship.
 
Put-call parity relationship: The relationship between the price of a put and the price of a call on the same underlying security with the same expiration date, which prevents arbitrage opportunities. Holding the underlying stock and buying a put will deliver the exact payoff as buying one call and investing the present value (PV) of the exercise price. The call value equals C = S + P – PV(k).
 
Put-call ratioThe ratio of the volume of put options traded to the volume of call options traded, which is used as an indicator of investor sentiment (bullish or bearish).
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Educational Tip of the Day (SOURCE: NASDAQ.com)
Law of large numbers: The mean of a random sample approaches the mean (expected value) of the population as sample size increases.
Option Pricing Curve: A graphical representation of the projected price of an option at a fixed point in time. It reflects the amount of time value premium in the option for various stock prices, as well. The curve is generated by using a mathematical model. The delta (or hedge ratio) is the slope of a tangent line to the curve at a fixed stock price
U.S. Treasury securities: Interest-bearing obligations if the U.S. government issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a means of borrowing money to meet government expenditures not covered by tax revenues. There are three types of marketable Treasury securities-bills, notes and bonds. 
Forward exchange rate: Exchange rate fixed today for exchanging currency at some future date.
Forward rateA projection of future interest rates calculated from either spot rates or the yield curve. For example, suppose the one-year government bond was yielding 2% and the two-year bond was yielding 4%. The one year forward rate represents the one-year interest rate one year from now. You would solve the formula (1.04)^2=(1.02)(1+F). F is 6.03%.
Unbiased expectations hypothesisTheory that forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates.
Spot rate: The theoretical yield on a zero-coupon Treasury security.
Forward parity: Notion that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rates.
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Technology News
    The company based in Waltham has gained an international reputation for machines that walk with an uncanny sense of balance and even cheetahlike run faster than the fastest humans.
    But Boston Dynamics and its animal machines bring significant cachet to robotic efforts which are being led by Andy Rubin the Google executive who spearheaded the development of Android the most widely used smartphone software.
    like the Darpa Robotics Challenge stretch participants to try to solve problems that matter and we hope to learn from the insights around disaster relief Rubin said in a statement released by Google.
    Amit Serper who is now and helped stop a major Russian cyberattack last summer told me that he and many others in the field had done things as a teenager that be counted as Nearly everyone I spoke to from the InfoSec world cited research suggesting the human brain fully form until people reach their.
    In a set of guidelines from the Department of Justice cited several concerns beyond innocence or guilt in determining whether to bring a prosecution under the CFAA including the need for It seemed possible that intervention during the WannaCry attack had made him a visible target.
    His friends were there real estate was cheap been planning to use his savings and his bitcoin earnings to pay in cash for a large house and there seemed to be no professional point in moving to London or San Francisco when he could stop a global cyberattack from his bedroom.
    I found that Onavo Protect uses a Packet Tunnel Provider app extension which should consistently run for as long as the VPN is connected in order to periodically send the following data to Facebook as the user goes about their day.
    The Onavo Protect app downloads a Mobile Configuration file containing VPN settings to use with server location most likely based on the country name sent in POST request to the https API endpoint.
    Analytics data is sent in a POST request to https from the Packet Tunnel Provider process The Packet Tunnel Provider process would be running at any time the VPN connection for Onavo is switched on enabling periodic analytics data uploads to Facebook even if the Onavo Protect app is not open.
    expectations that Facebook and the other platforms are supposed to solve problems that the government and national security apparatus missed and thus far engaged Zac Moffatt digital director of Mitt Romney presidential campaign told BuzzFeed News.
    site the California Republican is filled with headlines like busted for peddling fake news AGAIN and York Times is doing a GREAT job as It greets visitors with a asking them to like it on Facebook before they enter and features a us at banner approximately twice the size of its own logo.
    Jonathan Albright research director at Columbia Tow Center for Digital Journalism told BuzzFeed News that he was particularly struck by the recent spread of conspiracy theories claiming that the Parkland High School shooting survivors were crisis actors.
    Graphic Jim Cooke Photo GettyGoogle has partnered with the United States Department of Defense to help the agency developartificial intelligence for analyzing drone footage a move that set off a firestorm among employees of the technology giant when they learned of involvement.
    Some Google employees were outraged that the company would offer resources to the military for surveillance technology involved in drone operations sources said while others argued that the project raised important ethical questions about the development and use of machine learning.
    At the Defense One Tech Summit in Washington Maven chief Marine Corps Drew Cukor said a symbiotic relationship between humans and computers was crucial to help weapon systems detect objects.
    Graphic Jim Cooke Photo GettyGoogle has partnered with the United States Department of Defense to help the agency developartificial intelligence for analyzing drone footage a move that set off a firestorm among employees of the technology giant when they learned of involvement.
    Some Google employees were outraged that the company would offer resources to the military for surveillance technology involved in drone operations sources said while others argued that the project raised important ethical questions about the development and use of machine learning.
    At the Defense One Tech Summit in Washington Maven chief Marine Corps Drew Cukor said a symbiotic relationship between humans and computers was crucial to help weapon systems detect objects.
    In essence the case alleges that BlackBerry was the first to come to market with a mobile messaging app and Facebook Instagram and WhatsApp piggybacked on its patented technology to build out their programs over the last decade.
    The patented technologies include generation technique its public key cryptosystem which was used as a security layer for messages sent and received a user interface for unobtrusively informing users of unread messages and other UI implementations that BlackBerry claims Facebook illegally used.
    Paul Grewal deputy general counsel offered this comment suit sadly reflects the current state of its messaging business.
    March.
    ET One of Silicon firms Sequoia Capital is pulling out the stops as it seeks to restock its war chest.
    If it reaches its fundraising goals the storied firm will collect more than billion in capital to fund its ambitions in the China and other countries according to a person familiar with plans.
    expectations that Facebook and the other platforms are supposed to solve problems that the government and national security apparatus missed and thus far engaged Zac Moffatt digital director of Mitt Romney presidential campaign told BuzzFeed News.
    site the California Republican is filled with headlines like busted for peddling fake news AGAIN and York Times is doing a GREAT job as It greets visitors with a asking them to like it on Facebook before they enter and features a us at banner approximately twice the size of its own logo.
    Jonathan Albright research director at Columbia Tow Center for Digital Journalism told BuzzFeed News that he was particularly struck by the recent spread of conspiracy theories claiming that the Parkland High School shooting survivors were crisis actors.
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EARNINGS
Educational Tip of the Day (SOURCE: NASDAQ.com):
DeltaThe ratio of the change in price of an option to the change in price of the underlying asset. Also called the hedge ratio. Applies to derivative products. For a call option on a stock, a delta of 0.50 means that for every $1.00 that the stock goes up, the option price rises by $0.50. As options near expirationin-the-money call option contracts approach a delta of 1.0, while in-the-money put options approach a delta of -1. Call deltas range from 0.00 to +1.00; put deltas range from 0.00 to -1.00. If the call delta is 0.69, the put delta is -0.31 (call delta minus 1 equals put delta; 0.69 -1 =-0.31).
 
Delta SpreadA ratio spread that is established as a neutral position by utilizing the deltas of the options involved. The neutral ratio is determined by dividing the delta of the purchased option by the delta of the written option
 
Delta hedge: Dynamic hedging strategy using options that calls for constant adjustment of the number of options used, as a function of the delta of the option.
 
Delta neutral: Describes value of a portfolio not affected by changes in the value of the asset on which the options are written.
 
Hedge ratio (delta)For options, ratio between the change in an option’s theoretical value and the change in price of the underlying stock at a given point in time. For convertibles, percentage of a convertible bond representing the number of underlying common shares sold against the shares into which bonds are convertible. If a preferred is convertible into 2000 common shares, a 75% hedge ratio would be short (long) 1500 common for every 1000 preferred long (short).
 
Neutral hedge: Hedge that is expected to yield a dollar-neutral result of the combined position, regardless of price change in any part of the hedge securities. For any convertible trading at a premium, this ratio is less than 100%. The higher the convertible premium, the lower a ratio must be to be neutral.
 
Neutral stock: A stock with a beta of 1.0 (equal to the market risk of SPY and other major indexes) 
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Technology News
    just want to create a community where people feel at ease where they do not feel threatened and we just see guns fitting into that equation said Whitney Wolfe Herd chief executive of Drew Anthony Smith for The New York Times A few swipes into the popular dating app Bumble and the diversity of interests is obvious Users post photos of themselves swinging from trapezes playing French horns posing with freshly caught fish and occasionally brandishing a handgun or aiming a semiautomatic rifle.
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    policy is likely to meet with from certain users and could even spawn niche dating apps for firearms aficionados said Sarah Roberts an assistant professor of information studies at the University of California Los Angeles.
    Schindler a former NSA officer who is perhaps best known for a dick pic scandal that forced him to resign as a Naval War College professor has premium followers paying him each for an approximate monthly income of.
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    His brief success at feigning insight went to his head and he soon began spinning more bizarre theories Sanders has been and continues to be an agent of influence for Vladmir sic and lashing out at any journalist who questioned his foreign policy credentials.
    Recently Peter Thiel the President billionaire investor and Facebook board member became Silicon defector when he reportedly told people close to him that he was moving to Los Angeles and relocating his personal investment funds there.
    Mike Garvey left president of Technologies a Youngstown company that provides precision measuring services talking to the congressman from his district Tim Ryan Andrew Spear for The New York Times But the advantages may be eroding.
    During the Akron stop of the bus trip while the Silicon Valley investors mingled with local officials over a dinner spread of vegan polenta pizza and barbecue sliders McKenna the San Francisco venture capitalist told me that he felt a difference in attitudes in cities like these where the tech success is still seen as something to celebrate.
    Recently Peter Thiel the President billionaire investor and Facebook board member became Silicon defector when he reportedly told people close to him that he was moving to Los Angeles and relocating his personal investment funds there.
    Mike Garvey left president of Technologies a Youngstown company that provides precision measuring services talking to the congressman from his district Tim Ryan Andrew Spear for The New York Times But the advantages may be eroding.
    During the Akron stop of the bus trip while the Silicon Valley investors mingled with local officials over a dinner spread of vegan polenta pizza and barbecue sliders McKenna the San Francisco venture capitalist told me that he felt a difference in attitudes in cities like these where the tech success is still seen as something to celebrate.
    deep experience leading corporate development teams will help move Coinbase into new markets and opportunities globally by leveraging acquisitions strategic investments and partnerships.
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    In I was tipped off by diplomatic and intelligence sources that Iran appeared to be using a complex web of front companies to circumvent Western sanctions that were imposed to deny Tehran the ability to develop nuclear weapons and support international terrorist groups.
    According to my sources elite and profiteering military unit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was seeking to use the former Soviet republic of Georgia to move sensitive goods and equipment and evade prying Western eyes during the height of financial war on Iran.
    My concern about the source of the emails only grew months later when I learned that Goldstein the Dechert attorney involved in the lawsuit against Azima on behalf of RAKIA also represented the Fox News Channel at the same time that some of the top stars were facing sexual harassment charges.
    https.
    thinking about an ideal world where you could set policies how would you handle the following a private message in which an adult man asks a girl for sexual.
    Photograph Jonathan Haynes for the Guardian Yvette Cooper MP chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee condemned the survey.
    have prohibited child grooming on Facebook since our earliest days we have no intention of changing this and we regularly work with the police to ensure that anyone found acting in such a way is brought to.
    Now ownership of Zagat will change again into the hands of an upstart restaurant review company that has harnessed smartphone apps an Instagram hashtag and a texting recommendation service as parts of its path to growth.
    Now future lies with a business founded by Stang and Andrew Steinthal two former music industry executives who initially wanted a way to recommend restaurants and bars to their friends.
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Educational Tip of the Day (SOURCE: NASDAQ.com):
Law of one priceAn economic rule stating that a given security must have the same price no matter how the security is created. If the payoff of a security can be synthetically created by a package of other securities, the implication is that the price of the package and the price of the security whose payoff it replicates must be equal. If it is unequal, an arbitrage opportunity would present itself.
Implied volatility: The expected volatility in a stock’s return derived from its option pricematurity dateexercise price, and riskless rate of return, using an option pricing model such as Black-Scholes.
Dead cat bounce: A small upmove in a bear market. Considered a continuation pattern, where at first the bounce may appear to be a reversal of the prevailing trend, but it is quickly followed by a continuation of the downward price move. It becomes a dead cat bounce (and not a reversal) after price drops below its prior low. Short-term traders may attempt to profit from the small rally, and traders and investors may try to use the temporary reversal as a good opportunity to initiate a short position.
Contango: A market condition in which future prices are higher in the distant delivery months. When a market is “in contango,” it describes a situation in which the delivery price of a particular futures contract has to converge downward to meet the futures price. A market that is in contango indicates that the forward or futures curve is upward sloping. If prices did not converge, it would set up an opportunity for investors to profit from arbitrage. Contango situations can be costly to investors
holding net long positions since futures prices are falling.
Backwardation: Market condition in which futures prices are lower in the distant delivery months than in the nearest delivery month. This may occur when the costs of storing the product until eventual delivery are effectively subtracted from the price today. The opposite of contango.
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Technology News
    The researcher at Columbia University Tow Center for Digital Journalism has dug into the details on how political Twitter trolls manipulate the media and unearthed an intricate web of conspiracy theory videos on YouTube.
    Facebook estimates that Instagram content reached million people but the company has never commented publicly on how many followers those accounts received.
    In his testimony before Congress a few weeks later general counsel said that in fact million people had been exposed to the propaganda group posts on Facebook.
    Now that the conversations that led to the algorithm change have been made public cryptographers have urged people to avoid IOTA based on how the team responded to Heilman and the DCI attempt at disclosure.
    Ivancheglo for his part has called the September DCI report academic fraud and said on Twitter that Heilman should be scared because there were lawyers working on the issue.
    This is true for IOTA but also for other digital currencies In March of Ethereum Foundation developer Vlad Zamfir tweeted is safe or scalable.
    The media provided Google with an endless wave of free press as cities frustrated by the high price and slow speeds of existing ISPs tripped over themselves vying for the affection.
    Google Fiber would we were told once and for all free the country from the iron grip of regional monopolies like Comcast delivering broadband at a more reasonable per month price point across huge chunks of the nation.
    Since Google executives appear to actually know what these evolved wireless efforts will look like yet the public relation apparatus has been left with little more than a rotating crop of sowing further frustration among cities trying to get on the other side of the vast digital divide.
    On Monday the Supreme Court heard Ohio American Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times Big tech platforms Amazon Facebook Google control a large and growing share of our commerce and communications and the scope and degree of their dominance poses real hazards.
    On Monday the Court heard Ohio American Express a case centering on a technical but critical question about how to analyze harmful conduct by firms that serve multiple groups of users.
    Since internet technologies have enabled the growth of platform companies that serve multiple groups of users firms like Alphabet Amazon Apple Facebook and Uber are set to be prime beneficiaries of the Second warped analysis.
    ET Jones years old never thought a job running accounts for Marriott International would require him to know global politics.
    That was before he used an official company account to like a post on Twitter from a Tibetan separatist group.
    The group applauded Marriott for listing Tibet as a country rather than part of China in an online survey.