As of mid-Oct. 2018, it is the first time since the March 2009 low where it is in a position to have completed a typical five wave Bull trend and completed the 9+ year advance that could be followed by a corrective decline of 20% or more lasting at least several months if not 2-3 years.
The largest correction since the March 2009 low has been 9 months and 15.2%. If the Bull market has topped, we should expect a decline greater in degree or time and price than any of the corrections within the Bull trend. This higher time frame correction should last longer than 9 months and be greater than 15.2% (May 2015-Feb. 2016, W.(4).
A typical correction would reach the area of the W.4 of lesser degree (May 2015 – Feb. 2016) at 2135-1810 or a 27%-38% decline from the Sept. high. This coincides with a 50% retracement of the Bull trend from the March 2009 low if Sept. 2018 is indeed the W.(5) top.
Only a trade below the April 2018, W.4:(5) low will confirm the W.(5) Bull market high is complete. However, initial warnings it is complete have been made as shown on the weekly and daily charts that follow. Bear trends are just like Bull trends, never straight down but wii have weekly highs and lows. A trade above the Sept 30 high would void this count.
Having said that, With a trade below last Thursday’s low a Weekly and possibly longer term Index high are confirmed. Target Zone for this 1st section down (W.1 or A) are on chart. At this point I would not go short in the hole. nce W.1 or A is complete a corrective bounce (50-62%) should occur). Weekly charts are deep OS. – Please join our Trading room to stay up to date with market updates..
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Looking at the historical charts for $SPX, it has broken down, major support areas, with possible Wave 3 or C target 2078-2083 on $ES_F .
A weekly SPX close below 2099 should signal a Bull Breakout failure and the onset of a BearTrend well into 2017..Will this happen I do not know but the technical setup is there
$ES_F Weekly Chart
$ES_F Daily Chart
$ES_F 15 Minute Chart for a trade with good Risk Reward possible target 2083 , unless high get taken out
looking at the historical charts for $SPX, it has closed within 5.3 point range within three months, so there is absolutely no upside follow through, does this mean we wont break up this tight range? For us to find out in the upcoming weeks, as we get into the historical US presidential elections.
Looking at the $ES_F
Intra-day: the 60 minutes chart is bullish
240 Minutes chart is Bearish
Daily is bearish
Weekly is Bullish
Net results today should be a down day, for it to resolve..
240 Minute chart ($ES_F)
The Daily $ES_F chart below shows the corrective pattern of this move up. Many candle bars overlap within the triangle which needs to resolve itself, up or down, Count on this chart assumes the downside, however upside resolution is not out of the questions. Close below 2132 should mean further downside to below Sept lows and close above 2182.75 should mean new ATHs.
given this tight range we have been doing IRON Condor on $SPY and $SPX every week, check room for details
Traders wake up today on a RED ink everywhere and here is the $ES_F Momentum Positions:
Weekly Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down for at least another 2-3 weeks.
Daily Trend Bear: The net trend should be sideways to down over the next few trading days, if not weeks.
Yesterday’s rally reached the .618 retrace from the 8 Sept high which is a normal retrace. Retraces above the .786 @ 2165 would have been cause of concern for the Bear Team.
Here is the Daily chart for $ES_F , looking at the ABC setup to the FMOC
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply lower open on Tuesday, as investors kept an eye on the price fluctuations in oil, amid speculation over when the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. The Dow Jones index was down some 102 points around 5.30 a.m.
Intraday ES : 240m OB, 60m Deep OS, VV AD: .41 Bear
$ES_F 60 minutes Chart
We will be looking for the 60 minutes reversal today to align with 240 minutes and Daily… I added some more hedges yesterday..I will know I am wrong with ES breaching .786 @ 2165 – check chat room for updates
Today’s Economic Calendar
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
We are looking at $ATVI for a trade idea, so we will be buying some Call Debit Spreads – Check room for details.
$AAPL is edging higher in pre-market as there are news on a healthy demand on the #IPHONE7 sales. T-Mobile Releases PR saying “Apple’s #iphone7 and #iphone7Plus is the biggest Pre-Order in T-mobile’s History up 4 x compared to the next most popular #iphone”
Traders wake up today on a RED ink everywhere, specially when Fed Rosengren Speech about interest rates and over heating the U.S economy situation.
$ES_F Momentum Positions:
Weekly Trend Bear and not yet Over Sold. The net trend should be sideways to down for at least another 2-3 weeks.
Daily Trend The $SPX made a Bear Reversal: A multi-day high should be near completion, if not complete on Sept. 7, 2016
We are still holding $ES_F short from yesterday at 2179…stops at 2176, $ES_F move down initial project to 2153/57 area ..there is strong confluence lower at 2111-2113.
Andrew Renneisen | Getty Images U.S. stock index futures indicated a lower open on Friday morning as traders eyed comments from a series of Fed speakers. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will be on CNBC at 10 a.m. Eastern.
$ES_F Intraday: 240m deep OS, 60m Deep OS, VV AD .36 Bear,
Couple stocks we are looking at for today that we will discuss in the Chat ROOM
$TGT Daily Chart
$TGT triggers ..buying OCT 70 PUTS
$AU Daily Chart
$AU triggers bought some Oct 18 Puts…see charts above for stop details
On the dear stock Apple ($AAPL) Chief Executive Tim Cook failed to knock the socks off investors Wednesday when he introduced the newest rounds of bells and whistles on the #iPhone, the latest dubbed the iPhone 7 and the iPhone 7 Plus, and the Apple Watch, according to analysts.
recap: We are still holding $ES_F and $SPY short from yesterday, we will revisit and take profits on targets, and moving stops
