by Carlos Narváez | Jan 6, 2017 | RQLAB
NUGT
A perfect fibonacci pinball on NUGT should have a standard retrace to 9.39; then one more high to 10.92 in the 5th wave of the 5 of 1, a chart of the ideal scenario is here (link). Assuming we want to play that last squiggle higher, the position should be small, with an entry at 9.55, this is a high risk trade and might not come to fruition, but the setup is there.
I want to point out something important on this update, waves ii on NUGT have happened to be small, almost non existent, so once we get the ideal high for wave 1, we should not expect a standard retrace for wave 2 to be constructed, and instead of .50 we should look for a .382 retrace or even .236. Risk management is going to be essential for positioning in 2 of 3 of 3 in metals.
NFLX
The last standard targets on our books for NFLX are 135.78-140.41, but we should use a tight stop if want to participate on that upside, initial concern should be a break under 1341.43 with continuation under 129.10. Chart here (link) and here (link).
NFLX won its place as a core, so again if trading the last squiggles higher first one has to set stops and respect them.
SHAK
Did something outstandingly bullish yesterday by going above 39.51, so we will post the macro ABC, chart here (link) with a conservative target at 44.80 and then the subdivisions: the initial subdivision (link1) has great potential for 43.36 and ideally should hit 48.67-49.92, we have to notice though that the 43-45 area has been a wall for SHAK during an entire year, so any conservative trader can sell 43.36 or reduce accordingly if this level is seen; this 43.39 area represents iii of 3 on this second subdivision (link2)
TNA
Instead of following through to the upside we got a test of support at 104 area, where we did a repurchase of the stocks we had sold higher. Setup is simple and clear, for as long as 100.25 holds, we can project 109.98 at a minimum, but if 1002.25 breaks with follow through under 99.95 we can establish target at 98.92 with low probabilities for 93.21 and 91.87.
Moores’ 2C-P is at 68, testing previous resistance area again. D/U ratio was 1.429, nothing impressive, so even 98.92 is seen on TNA that would be a very standardized move to the downside and the action for the week would be very normal.
PCR is back to standard territory PCR 3.351 107,166 calls expiring versus 359,152 puts expiring. What takes our attention is that for next week traders were seriously bearish buying a incredible amount of puts change was executed at 6.863, shocking.
Cyclical analysis is still bullish.
All in all I know w want to stay long TNA at least until 112-114, I do not like chasing, so rather to suffer a bit here, than having the terrible duty to chase a potential and more serious top once TNA is at 112-114.69 area.
by Carlos Narváez | Jan 5, 2017 | RQLAB
Supports for TNA should be 105.58 and 104.98 as seen on this chart, (link) but ideally, should continue to our targets at 108.88 and 109.27 where we plan to sell 50% of our remaining position, after that we will only hold a core composed of 680 shares that were bought at 104.48 average, this because, since wave 2 was so deep, it is very hard to define the target for the retrace after 108.88-109.27 area is hit.
Nothing from all the indicators we follow regularly is signaling a reversal, but in case market provides a pullback to 104 area again, this should be buyable and we will use it to rebuy some shares we sold at highs yesterday.
NUGT
December 30th
In the blue count, NUGT has completed wave 3 at the 6.854 extension and for practical purposes that’s all what matters, chart here (
link); 8.08 and 7.72 are levels to watch, but considering all what extended we should not look for any continuation in wave 3 but to look for the target for wave iv in the 7.83- 7.39 range.
We could post more about the gray subdivisions in i-ii/i-ii but that’s irrelevant at the moment.
Current update;
I have to say that from those 7.55 lows NUGT’s action has been more than heroic, ideally should hit 9.91 as seen on this chart (
link) and that would complete wave 1 up from the very lows, reasonable probable target for today is 9.52-9.46. Have no more to say, perfect fibonacci pinball.
SHAK
For as long as SHAK holds 38.45 a direct path to 43.75 is reasonable probable, so for all purposes we will add to our core once and immediately after 39.51 is taken, strong above 40.23 we would have more certainty about our 43.75 target.
by Carlos Narváez | Jan 4, 2017 | RQLAB
From gamma optimizer: The momentum chart looks very good for those of us waiting for a rocket launch, also the p-value for today’s action is excellent at 0.021 using the returns since Dec 20 as reference. There is a good chance of upside momentum continuing for the next couple of sessions at least.
Looking at net dollar changes, we observe a very curious action:
From yesterday:
If we look at the net dollar spread sheet constructed by Joel we will find that the values obtained for the correction started on November 28th (row 32) are very similar to the values obtained for December 31st (row 55). D/U ratios are very similar 2.439 versus 2.321. This leads to consider that while we can see one more low toward our 96-95 range on TNA we must stay cautiously bullish about this market, at the same time we consider that if a higher high is seen on TNA, this might be sold extremely fast.
The correction ended on Friday December 2nd, before the Italian Referendum, D/U for the bottom was 0.929 at that time, current ratio for today was 0.267 with extreme buying pressure, in addition to this; the levels signaled by Japhy on December 31st were not broken, so double bottom is still holding on IWM.
MOC was $2.1 billion on the buy side, meaning a gap up tomorrow should be sustainable.
Cyclical analysis is not clear, so we won’t look much into it.
Moores’ 2C-P has had a healthy correction from 96.10, current value is 67.60, this was previous resistance, now support area.. It is interesting that the indicator has corrected in a decent manner while market is technically flat.
Based on Elliott Wave, we have a squalid but valid five up at HOD on TNA chart here (link), so for as long as TNA holds above 100.05 we can project 105.55 at at minimum and breaking solidly above this 105.55 we can project 108.82-109.60, but if the market fails to hold 100.05 and breaks 99.95, target still should be 94.76 area.
$NVDA
Failed to hold stop that should have been set at 110.20. Currently we could project target for 96.38 on the downside, chart here (link) this should be followed by a corrective bounce to 111-112 range. It is interesting that despite a count exists for 96.38, price managed to close above 102.05, meaning macro fibonaccis are still holding.
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 30, 2016 | RQLAB
$NVDA, usually has issues at 3.118 extension, currently at 116.80 for the micro pattern, chart here (link); you see the gray 3, that’s the standard extension for wave 3, but NVDA extends to 3.118, this is the reason we considered that once above 111.08 a target to 114 was secure, so far we executed trade well, right now all stops must be set at 110.20.
With only three waves up off of the lows there is no reason to make NVDA a core position yet; .764 retrace from lows is 116.22 chart here, (link), needs to hold a wave iv and give us wave v to turn NVDA into a core, but for as long as our support at 110.46 can continue extending higher and we should do well staying long specially if previous high at 120 area is taken.
GDX/NUGT
Immediate resistance for GDX is 22.10 and immediate support for NUGT is 8.69 followed by 8.30, so two conditions have to be met for we to trade the long side with some certainty: GDX must take 22.10 advancing through 22.50 and NUGT has to hold 8.69 and 8.30 at all times.
Mid day Update on NUGT
In the blue count, NUGT has completed wave 3 at the 6.854 extension and for practical purposes that’s all what matters, chart here (link); 8.08 and 7.72 are levels to watch, but considering all what extended we should not look for any continuation in wave 3 but to look for the target for wave iv in the 7.83- 7.39 range.
We could post more about the gray subdivisions in i-ii/i-ii but that’s irrelevant at the moment. 9
by Carlos Narváez | Dec 30, 2016 | RQLAB
This Thread will have daily Updates on $TNA
December 28, 2016
The setup we sent yesterday (link) got invalidated, market managed to advance during the first minutes just to get rejected at resistance chart here (link). We stopped out on the trade position we have been using in this area at 104.90 and again at 101.1. What takes our attention is that price did not break decisively under 99.95 and there was huge selling pressure, so based on EW we need price to break above 107.5 or under 99.95 while price is contained within this range we can not make a useful call for trading purposes, under 99.95 we can project 96.25 at a minimum on TNA so we have to wait..
Joel revised his charts and it looks like lots of stocks stopped at various supports. T-line or 20 DMA or GFG or deep daily retrace fibs.Unless bears keep the pressure on, we should have a decent rebound or more.
What is clear is that traders are getting bearish into next week; PCR is as high as 4.462, so we have to observe closer.
