Before posting our regular analysis allow me to remind you why we go long when most stay in the sidelines and why we take advantage of our analysis to add strong stocks:
Our analysis is highly valuable, we measure the tape pretty well and we can project future price action in an excellent manner, but at the very core of our business we must keep speculation and investment separate and remember that if there is a secure way to be poor in the future is by not buying the breaking-through companies that are improving the life on Earth today in a constant solid and profitable way, specially during this bull market.
So instead of waiting for the last drop of our bearish call to fall we accumulate what facts show is quality, knowing that quality, more often than not comes back. More than our smartness this approach, accompanied with good risk management, is what has provided us the cash flow to stay in the game despite some concentrated losses.
We are not bullish here, do not read the above paragraphs as a call to be bullish or rational, but a call to look at facts and do not allow the sentiment to play an excessive role in our trading.
Analysis
Open Interests points Lower into July Expiration, this is July 22nd.
EW Analysis
QQQ, immediate support in the route to 153.67 is at 135.89 in a 3 months chart (link).
On the daily (link) if QQQ is playing in a series of i-ii-1-2 within the wave 3 of off the lows support for QQQ is at 137.60 and 1% extension is at 130.92. Always in the i-ii, support is at 135.69 (link) same as on the three months chart and on another wave count, so this 135 area needs to crack down to confirm markets are approaching to a decent correction.
Maintaining above 136.59 and 135.89 would be more an indication of consolidation rather than of an impending sell off, so again, this 136.59-135.89 needs to break to confirm bearish calls are playing out.
TNA/SPX, as posted on Friday
We have posted our upper supports for the market, should SPX break under 2395.9 we could say that bulls are not pricing the risk in a reasonable way. For TNA upper support after/if 57.90 is achieved should come at 54.02 with clear invalidation of upper bullish projections once it breaks under 52.35. Handle shorts with care and do not get overexcited if bears get some control.
TNA achieved 57.90 on Friday and something more (link), so there is no change on this 54.02 support, we can draw a breakout line at 54.69, and we should do well assigning different bullish alternatives with 60- 61 (link) as targets while this new line holds, obviously under 54.02 upside probabilities are off the table.
For SPX, no change, supports at 2429 with signal of weakness under 2395.9.
$ES_F hit W.5 of 5 of 5 tgts Friday…in multiple fib resistance zones…weekly momos are OB with Daily ..13 osc bearish. Also, traded right into 5-7 trading day timing zone. HOWEVER, this being said ES still needs a Daily close below w.4 …2421.75 to confirm a Daily and possibly weekly high is Complete.
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