Moores’s 2C-P is at 85. Still high, but not the extreme high registered on 12/13/2016, when it hit 96.10. This could support a rally in the markets toward extremes again.
Based on Open Interest, traders continue being bearish for this week, but the rate is more conservative now at 2.824. Readings for EOW4, December 30 expiration, show someone is really long this market, PCR 1.680, into inversion territory, similar to January Expiration series, PCR 1.73 and February Expiration, which is heavily inverted at 1.49.
I will post our current Elliott Wave analysis next, but it’s very speculative, counts are not clear enough . Yesterday we selectively reduced exposure on the long side due to this uncertainty. Nonetheless, we had previously stressed many times that after a successful hit to previous 4.764 extension, the market does not need a clear structure for new highs. TNA went a bit deeper than 101.60, or previous 4.764, to find support at previous 4.618 at 100.50, chart here (link), deeper than projected, so we still have to question if that test is valid.
Right now, we can consider that TNA is working in a c wave higher to 107.93, chart here (link) with a bullish target of 111.74-112.64. What I have labeled as wave 1-2 is subdivided in 3 waves, so could fit better as a-b, chart here (link). But, since we are more than analysts, we are traders, we must set the breakout level for TNA at 106.03, with support at 105.57. Will the price breakout above 107.93 for 111.74? That remains to be seen, so better to start positioning at 106.03 than at the top of a potential C wave at 107.93.
Initial indications are that price is breaking down to 96.79, initial target, and potential for 91.09-89.74 comes once TNA breaks under 101.76, with follow through under 99.95. Extension here (link)
Hope current update clears some doubts,
