This is what Avi sent in his weekend update, Mar 23 20:45:19: As you can see from the attached 5-minute chart, the bottom of our support region is now at 2796SPX. And, as long as we remain over that level, then the next rally will either be a 5th wave completing the b-wave, or it may signal that the b-wave has already been completed, with the next rally being a wave ii retrace before we drop in earnest within wave 1 of the c-wave down towards the 2725-40SPX region.
Avi continued: To put it simply, it takes a sustained break of 2795 SPX to open that trapdoor to begin the pullback we want to see as we head into April… As we also know, we have been tracking two potential wave counts off the December 2018 low. Our primary count remains that this is a b-wave rally, followed by a c-wave down towards the 2200SPX region in the coming months.
Part of our duty is to see where to weight the probabilities that Avi is sending. In this sense, usually when we have a price structure like this, 2750 should the usual support, very usual, you can see 2750 was previous 1.764 retrace on the following link (OPlink) and this 2750 marks the point where the “B” higher to 2924 is probable or not. Increase your attention, because here is the key, a break below 2750 with follow through below 2725 that can not come back below 2750 again, should be secure indication that SPX topped and probably won’t find support for a bounce until at least 2551. But this has not happened, price has not broken below 2750 and as you can read, Avi considers his support is at 2796, we could be impressed by the continuous break of this break below 2796 level and fearful, but since we have done our work, we will simply average down Avi’s support a bit to 2773. Additionally, the W-line is at 2762.59 at this moment, so an overshoot to this level can not be discarded, what looks extremely unlikely based on Avi’s support and our work is the standard test of 2750, which usually is support. In other words, getting extremely bearish here is a mistake. It is clear is that we can lower our target on SPX to 2900-2924.$IWM
On this correction IWM ideally should hold 147.85 where A=C completes (Alt8link) but since is already in advanced states of this correction, can extend to 146.43$NVDA
Support should be 171.51 (Alt8link), below this level, last line to enter a bullish trade should be 167, so think repurchasing between 167 and 172.48 is a decent entry for a long. The target for this move up, in case 172.48-167 area manages to hold should be 195 and we can not exclude a test of 210 on the upside.We have hedged our TNA purchases throught TZA, so we will pay close attention to the intraday price action tomorrow, we don’t plan to get bearish, without a clear indication a major top occurred, additionally, plan to reload NVDA if the opportunity appears.
In the case we observe some weakness on $AMZN below 1729 would indicate we might see 1710 or 1692.
Good Luck..
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