From January 22nd:
We will describe what $TNA has been doing: Holding at or above 98.92. That’s it. For positioning we maintain our tactically neutral approach on this market, this is long, at least until 112 or 123 on $TNA. While it is possible that the market can extend to the lower ends of our targets at 91.42 before finally heading to new highs that potential retrace is already factored in within our updates and our books.
Probably we should have stressed more how important 98 was for $TNA, —I certainly think we did— but, since we were already long, for risk management purposes we avoided to go heavier at 98, waiting for 91.
That was, at all lights, a mistake in our trading system, but while we avoided to add more to $TNA, we certainly posted our entries on $BRK.B, which we turned into a 4.8% position and $AAPL which we made a 2.48% position. Timely wise we minimally reduced $TNA to move our capital to $UPRO — a 1% position—. So all in all our executions were good. Including the IBM earnings trade, which certainly panned out better than what we expected in terms of time.
While we could take time to chest thump our current trades and join to the crow cheerleading current market action or regret our failure for not adding $TNA on time we will address a more serious situation: Market is about to hit 1% of the gray 1-2 on this chart (link), so, as we considered on January 9th, we will update support for the market to 2187, this means stops should be trailed and cores should be reduced to protect profits. Initial signals for concern should come once market breaks under 2291 followed by a break under 2274.
For $TNA, micro, should have a pullback to 103.39 or 102.44, that should be the standard situation, but current strength signals a gap up to 107.02, which has been serious resistance in the past.
As an additional note one of the best volatility traders I know posted he is alarmed because there is nothing that indicates a reversal on indexes, you know what this means… an event might be lurking out there, a buying opportunity.
Today we added:
