Patience is a Virtue But it Might Not Make You Money – $ES_F, $SPX, $SPY

by Viola Volatility | Oct 21, 2016 | Business, Viola V.

Another expiration Friday, and we closed $SPX down. Is this the sign of the start of a down move that has been long in coming? Who the heck knows- well…except the rulers in the Eccles Building, and whomever they deign to tell. SO what to do for the rest of the day? Well, these are the levels  in the /ES I am looking at.

$ES_F today:

• Looking down: if 2128.50 is broken, should be down
  gap at 2123.25 good reversal point if drop at open
  2118 important support for bull case
• Looking up: if 2128.50 remains, good upside potential
  gap at 2137
  shelf at 2138.50
  shelf at 2141.25

• Up target is 2155 where the island formed between 10/7-10/11 resides

• Another trade I am working is selling a couple of puts in the $ES_F for expiry in week three- 28 days until expiration, around the 2020 option. I will take it off at 50% profit, it that happens.

What else is going on? We are fighting the down move in the $ES_F futures right now, but that is nothing new. We have been having a frustrating, schizoid  market the last couple of days with big drops, lots of sideways chop, and big pops. I lost money- I admit it. I got whirled up in the blender. But I am woman enough to put on my big girl pants, and dive back in today. I think.

What I would like to see is the ES retest the low around 2107.50. I have been holding shorts for a while now, as a core position, waiting for that number to hit. Of course, there are a lot of things I want, not the least is for this to happen, and yes, I remain disappointed, all the while still wearing my big girl pants.

It’s been a tough week and I can sense the exhaustion amongst a lot of traders. Unfortunately there’s really nothing to  do but remain patient  and vigilant. We have had basically a year long sideways market  with a quick downside correction mid year.  You know this can change in an instant. So, I want to stay nimble and emotionally balanced  so that when an entry opportunity presents itself, I am alert and  emotionally  ready to pounce.

Happy trading- and drink a lot this weekend. I will.

-Viola V.

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Market Musings on Tonight’s Debate | October 19, 2016 | $EWW, $IBB, $CNX, $SPX, $ES_F, Presidential election and final Debate between Trump and Clinton

by Viola Volatility | Oct 19, 2016 | Business, Viola V.

What does a trader do in a captured market?

The last couple of days have been mind numbing for me. Watching the ticks bounce around in a five to seven point range for hours makes me want to scream, throw things, and internet shop for needless items. Seems the solution to this sort of boredom is, natch, obsessing about the election! Yes folks, tonight is the third and final debate for this presidential election. And, I can wait- indefinitely.

This train is moving down the track, and it is relentless. Clinton, Trump, Clinton, Trump- I hear the sound of the wheels chanting that annoying rhythm as it clatters past. The candidates’ claims have become so outrageous I don’t care what either of them has to say tonight. In my book, they are both awful choices for the ruler of the free world. So what does this have to do with trading? I was musing about the effect of a Clinton victory yesterday, and came to the conclusion that since everyone has already decided she is the winner, the market probably has this outcome baked in. So, how much more can the market pop with a Clinton win? I think that Trump is the dark horse- the market might see a Brexit-type reaction if he squeaks in with the win.

How to trade this?

Beats me- but I do know, any type of volatility would be welcome, since I like to sell puts and calls when volatility is high. I might be inclined to do a short straddle in the SPY the day of the election- depends on if the vol is high. $EWW has been waxing and waning with this election- Trump’s Mexico comments seem to move that market. Also, the coal stocks and the pharma stocks seem to be hanging on Clinton’s word; there may be a trade in $IBB or $CNX. What is clear is that in the last decade, coal has gone from being the source of half of the country’s electricity to just one-third, while natural gas has risen from 21% to 31% and renewables have gained as well. The coal industry has been battered and beaten during the Obama administration. In fact, Consol Energy is one of the few coal companies to survive the fracking revolution of the last decade. A Trump election would likely be perceived as a big win for the industry, considering his support in coal country and his promises to reopen mines.

Trade safe out there today, and have fun. See you in the chat room

– Viola V.

Clinton vs. Trump: Will either talk retirement or Social Security in the debate?

There’s a preventable crisis facing America, and yet neither of the major-party candidates has said much, if anything, about it. To that point, the words “retirement” and “Social Security” have not been uttered in the first two presidential debates. Let’s see what happens in the final debate on Wednesday night.

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