Previous Updates
January 9th:
Saying that, it seems there is an event being priced; the short term razzmatazz wave shows a considerable top was constructed last week and a potential bottom should occur into the 23rd, the indicator might be lagging at this time. The PCR for this week is less informative since it is into standard territory at PCR: 2.839 so this call for a pullback should be valid. Open interest has been one the few indicators that give us a bearish approach for this market.
AMZN: Support is at 776.19, target at 822, support is buyable.
AAPL: Support continue being 116.56. Target at 122-130
FB: Support is 120.19 target is 128
January 6th
Instead of following through to the upside we got a test of support at 104 area, where we did a repurchase of the stocks we had sold higher. Setup is simple and clear, for as long as 100.25 holds, we can project 109.98 at a minimum, but if 1002.25 breaks with follow through under 99.95 we can establish target at 98.92, with low probabilities for 93.21 and 91.87.
The last standard targets on our books for NFLX are 135.78-140.41, but we should use a tight stop if want to participate on that upside, initial concern should be a break under 1341.43 with continuation under 129.10. Chart here (link) and here (link).
Current update:
I will summary our positioning this way: We have had to sell partially or entirely our cores on NQ (IBM, FB, AAPL, NFLX, IBM, TSLA, AMZN, QRVO) and trade miners to maintain our standard rate of cash flow during this month.
We will describe what TNA has been doing: Holding at or above 98.92. That’s it. For positioning we maintain our tactically neutral approach on this market, this is long, at least until 112 or 123 on TNA. While it is possible that the market can extend to the lower ends of our targets at 91.42 before finally heading to new highs that potential retrace is already factored in within our updates and our books.
We will go one by one across the indicators we follow:
Data Trader Pro or Japhy: His system registered very large blocks on UUP (dollar), SPY, IWM, DIA, XLF, EEM, USO, EFA all at fridays closing levels. As we know he will be bearish below and bullish above the levels the marks were printed. We particularly notice that IWM has been registering decent buying pressure at current levels 100-98.92
Open Interest: The short term razzmatazz is indicating a high into January 25th, I made sure to attach the chart. The long term razz points higher until May’s expiration, attached too. So we have a case where PCRs must maintain into standard territories. But that is not the case at least for tomorrow Monday, January 23rd, PCR is quite high at 3.654 and the change was executed at 11.674, with huge volume 11,198 calls versus 130,728 puts, we must not be surprised by a fast and strong move down. We need more movement on the net dollar space to make a call, Moores’ 2C-P is at 78, with room to go lower.
From cyclical analysis the low is expected to be on the 26th, January.
There is no call from the volatility space…
From what we are seeing we can definitely can say the market should go lower, not sure right now if into our target areas, but we must not be surprised if our levels are seen or by the speed of the move down, we must stay patient and trigger until 91 TNA, cover any underwater short and go net long.
NUGT/GDX
Above 23.55, we at least could expect 23.99 on GDX with chances for 24.49-24.71, but this last upper range is not reasonable probable.
For NUGT ideal target continue being 11.08-11.24 with upper end at 11.70-11.95, again this upper end is not reasonable and not probable.
